Saturday, September 12, 2009

Draft 2

OK. Here are the results for my 2nd draft of the season. Ten man league, 4th pick, non PPR. We do use a flex player.
Scoring for TDs - 6pts (1-39yds), 9pts (40-49yds), 12 pts (50+yds). Yds - 1pt for every 30yds for QBs and 1pt for every 10 for WR, TE, RB.

Round 1 -- Michale Turner/4 -- Surprised he got this far (Peterson, Jones-Drew and Forte drafted ahead). I had Turner as the number 2 back so I was extremely happy getting him with the 4th pick.
Round 2 -- Chris Johnson/7 -- Are you kidding me? 17 picks into the draft and he is still available. Huge mistake by the rest of the league.
Round 3 -- Jacobs/10 -- Big decision to make here. Already have 2 great RBs and Greg Jennings is sitting there waiting to be picked. I went with Jacobs because there was a considerable drop off with the remaining backs. I'm not a huge fan of Portis or S Jackson this year (my next two available RBs) so I decided to take a quality RB to give me depth and a great flex players. I saw some quality at WR in the later rounds (Ochocinco, Royal etc). I am worried about Jacobs' injury history, though.
Round 4 -- Dwayne Bowe/8 -- I really thought Chad Ochocinco would be available here. Unfortunately, he was drafted 2 picks before me. I am concerned about this pick, but most people have him much higher than I do. This is the one time I really want to be proven wrong.
Round 5 -- McNabb/4 -- Not too much available with the WR position and I was eyeing up Royal as a good WR 2 later in the draft. More on that later. The QB left were McNabb, Romo and Cutler. I had Mach 5 the highest rated available QB and knew a few teams needed QBs after this pick.
Round 6 -- Eddie Royal/7 -- I round earlier than his ADP, but I really didn't want to take a chance of losing him. I really do like this pick.
Round 7 -- Giants/3 -- I know this may go against what most "experts" say, but getting a top notch DEF is very important, esp in this league. They were my highest rated DEF based on the scoring system we use.
Round 8 -- Cooley/8 -- Olsen went the pick before this and I almost fell out of my chair. I love Olsen this year, but can't really complain about Cooley.
Round 9 -- Donald Brown/6 -- Benson was my target, but went a few picks before me. I should have gambled on Cooley's availability here and taken Benson last round. Hopefully, that mistake won't come back to haunt me. I do like Brown and expect him to be a big part of the Colts' offense.
Round 10 -- Garrard/7 -- Wanted a quality back up because of McNabb's injury history. Rothlesberger was already gone and Garrard was my next highest available QB.
Round 11 -- Kaeding/5 -- The run of kickers was about to start.
Round 12 -- Packers/5 -- Could be a nice backup DEF with some upside
Round 13 -- Vernon Davis/6 -- Mr. Underachiever better have a good year.
Rond 14 -- Santana Moss/8 -- Here's where an owner needs to pay attention. Every other team but one had their RB, WR and FLEX slots filled I waited until now to take him. Not a big fan of him usually because of his inconsistency, but you can't argue with Moss beating this draft position.
Round 15 -- Lindell/9 -- A backup with will hopefully only see the field on Kaeding's bye week.

I need some feedback here. What does everybody think?

The first game of the season

Nice work by the NFL to schedule the Steelers and Titans as Game 1 of the NFL season. They didn't disappoint. Here's the stats from Thursday with some fantasy perspective.

Steelers

Big Ben -- 33-43, 361yds, 1TD.
Parker -- 19 rushing yrds
Holmes -- 9 for 131yds, 1 TD
Ward -- 8 for 103 yds
Miller -- 8 for 64yds.

Well, as you can see the Steelers had NO run game against the Titans. I didn't expect a monster game from Parker, but 19 yds was pathetic. What really surprised me was that he wasn't even in at the end of the game. After all the talk about Parker being their goal line back and how much work he would be getting this season, not having him in at the end of the game is alarming. I had him further down my draft list than most, but after hearing about Mendenhall's ineffectiveness, I move him up a little. Well, if you own Parker, I'd be worried. Don't drop him just yet, but be on the look out for quality free agent additions.
Big Ben was ridiculous against the Titans. If he can do that against a strong defense, what the heck will he do against everybody else? Now, here's the question. Is Pitt's offense going to be more of a passing offense like they were 2 years ago? If so, Big Ben will put up impressive numbers. I think they want to run, but Parker needs to be much more effective. I'm sure most drafted Ben as a great QB2. If he performs even close to what he did on Thursday the rest of the season, you may have found yourself a great QB1. My one concern is the sacks (4) and hits he took against the Titans. Pitt has a bad OL and all those drop backs are going to add up to a lot of bumps and bruises for Ben. If he is your starter, make sure you have a good backup. I just worry about QBs getting hit that much.
Holmes and Ward looked great as well. My concern with drafting either of them this year was trying to identify who would be the number 1 WR. I'd edge towards Holmes, but you can't go wrong with either when the offense looks that good. Looks like Pitt is going to have to pass a lot more than originally thought.

Titans

Collins -- 22-35, 244yds, 1Td
Chris Johnson -- 16 touches for 68 total yds.
White -- 8 for 28
Britt -- 4 for 85 yds
Gage -- 7 for 78yds, 1 TD

Another team with an ineffective run game. I drafted Johnson in one league so his final numbers were really disappointing to me. I wasn't expecting greatness, but 1 TD would have really been nice. Don't worry Johnson if you own him. The Steelers have an incredible defense that is capable of shutting down anybody. It was nice to see Johnson dominating the touches over White. That will continue as the season wears on. Remember how good Chester Taylor was for the Vikings before Peterson was drafted. Their first season together allowed both backs to get a lot of touches, but Peterson quickly took over the next year. Expect the same thing with the Titans. Johnson should easily finish in the top 8 of RBs.
The Titans passing offense looked pretty good, but don't go picking up all their players. They are going to be a run first, second and third team with an occasional pass thrown in between. I don't trust their receivers or Collins for the long haul.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

1 draft down. 1 to go

OK. I FINALLY finished my first draft of the season. Could be a pretty good year, but there are some things to keep an eye on. Wouldn't really be a fun season unless there was some drama.

8 person league. 2nd pick. Starters -- 1QB, 2RBs, 2 WRs, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF, 1FLEX, 8 bench players
Pretty standard scoring with a 3pt bonus for QB yds over 300 and rush/receiving over 100. NonPPR.

Round 1 - Michael Tuner/4 -- Peterson already gone. Pretty easy pick
Round 2 - Steve Slaton/10 -- It was between him and Westbrook.
Round 3 - Calvin Johnson/7 -- I took him over Portis because of RB value later in the draft and no WRs yet.
Round 4 - Kevin Smith/7 -- Lost out on Portis and Barber, but can't really complain with the pick. He's a pretty good flex player
Round 5 - Ryan Grant/5 -- Was thinking WR, but couldn't let that much RB talent go to another team at this point in the draft.

Now I have 2 of my ranked RB1s and 2 RB2s and a WR1. Doing pretty well, but need WRs going forward.

Round 6 - Philip Rivers/5 - McNabb, Romo Warner were also available, but there were no solid WRs at this point so I decided to go for the highest remaining QB.
Round 7 - Chad Ochocinco/8 -- I loved this pick and it's why I went QB last round. Great value here.
Round 8 - Cedric Benson/8 -- At this point, I didn't like the remaining WRs and decided to see what would be available later in the draft. RB depth is never a bad thing.
Round 9 - Greg Olsen/5 -- Loved this pick and once again didn't want to force a WR just because of lack of a quality backup. The top 4 TEs were already gone. I think Olsen could move up into the top 4 by the end of the season.
Round 10 - Jay Cutler/5 -- I had him as a quality QB 1 and couldn't resist getting that kind of talent in Round 10. Rivers is playing a much harder schedule so now I can use a QB by committee with two legit number 1s.

I love my Rbs right now. There's a ton of depth and potential trade bait going forward. The Cutler thing may have been overkill, but Rivers' schedule is a little scary and I wasn't sure if Cutler would be available that late. Again, potential trade bait here as well. The depth at WR is concerning, but why force the issue with inferior talent. WRs will spring up later in the season and hopefully, I can nail one of them and stay away from injuries with Johnson and Ocho.

Round 11 - Kevin Walter/10 -- L Coles was sitting there, but I already had two Bengals and didn't want my WR 3 to be him (2 games against BALT and PITT is a little scary). I had Domenik Hixon rated higher, but the emergence of Hakeem Nicks made me think twice.
Round 12 - Laveranues Coles/8 - Don't mind him here now that Walter is on the team. He could be a big value here, but that is by no means a guarantee.
Round 13 - Chargers/5 -- I loved this pick. The DEFs were starting to fly off the board.
Round 14 - Earnest Graham/8 - Shocking! Another RB. I took a value pick here. He may pay off in the end if he can stay healthy.
Round 15 - Percy Harvin/9 - Total flyer pick here. I was at the bottom of the barrel for WRs and wanted to add one more for depth. MINN wants to get him involved so there is some upside.

Added some WR depth, but will definitely be looking for up and coming talent during the season. Week 5 is going to be scary. So many guys on a bye and the Bengals and Lions play PITT and BALT. Somebody up there hates me. Every year I get screwed over by a BYE week.

Round 16 - David Garrard/7 - Wanted a quality backup for Week 5 since Cutler and Rivers are off. This was my highest rated available QB. He does have some upside so the value is tremendous.
Round 17 - Kris Brown/10 - Needed a Kicker and the BYE week struck again.

Once again, I made a stupid mental mistake. The Number 1 pick had two selections after my Round 16 pick and then I was up again. For some reason, I missed him picking up a backup QB earlier (Favre) and knew he already had a Kicker (Gostkowski). I was nervous about losing Garrard even though there were three QBs ranked ahead of him left based on ADP. I went with Garrard. The remaining number 1 Kickers were Elam/4, Crosby/5 and K Brown/10. There no way he would take another Kicker, right? He did and it was Elam even though ADP had Crosby rated higher. Now, I have a tough decision to make. There are no backups for Olsen and the Chargers and both have Week 5 BYES, making Crosby an almost impossible pick. I had to settle for K Brown. I know its not the end of the world, but lack of attention can really hurt you down the road. I totally blew it here.
I usually take a back up for whatever position (TE, K, DEF) has its BYE first then drop that player and add a backup for the next one, etc. This year I decided to take depth at (RB, WR, QB) and wait until Week 5 to make that call. Injuries or ineffectiveness can make the decision for me so why waste a pick you are just going to lose anyway.
There you have it. My first draft of the season has come to an end. Let me know what you think.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Defenses (updated 9/2/09)

Starters

Steelers/8
Ravens/7
Vikings/9
Giants/10
Eagles/4
Titans/7
Pats/8
Chargers/5
Packers/5

Backups

Jets/9
Cowboys/5
Bears/5
Colts/6
Bucs8
Redskins/8
Dolphins/6
Cardinals/4
Panthers/4
Jags/7
Bengals/8





Kickers (updated 9/2/09)

There all the same so don't reach for any of these guys.

Starters

Bironas/7
Gostkowski/8
Kaeding/5
Elam/4
Crosby/5
Longwell/9
K Brown/10
Folk/6
Akers/4

Backups

Tynes/10
Gould/5
Lindell/9
Graham/8
Scobee/7
J Brown/9
Rackers/4
Kasay/4
Reed/8
Prater/7
Vinatieri/6

Monday, August 31, 2009

Upcoming articles

Come back tomorrow. I'll update TEs, Kickers and DEF.

Updated Tight End Rankings (8/31/09)

Starters

Witten/6 -- No T.O. means more TDs for Witten. Three popcorn vendors have already been let go. The loss of T.O. hurts away from the field too.
Gates/5 -- Healthy and an improved run game can only help. May even finsh number 1.
Gonzalez/4 -- Tough pick here because of his new situation, but its hard to ignore talent.
Dallas Clark/6 -- Has an injury history but the Colts' easier schedule will help improve his numbers.
Olsen/5 -- Should be an absolute stud this year.
Cooley/8 -- Don't like the Redskin offense, but Cooley will have a bounce back year.
Daniels/10 -- Consistently puts up good, not great, numbers.
Winslow/8 -- Don't really like the Bucs this year, but he should be ok.

Backups

Zach Miller/9 -- I'd really try to stay away from all the Raiders this year.
Keller/9 -- Rookie QB and weak WRs makes Keller look really good.
Shockey/5 -- You're taking a risk with this pick, but it may just pay off.
H. Miller/8 -- Solid, but not spectacular.
V Davis/6 -- So much wasted talent.
Shiancoe/9 -- Stats will be hurt the this season's additions.
Carlson/7 -- Not really sure where all the love is coming from.
Fasano/6 -- Not believe all the Wildcat hype.
Scheffler/7 -- Not a big fan, but he does give some upside if things go right.
Celek/4 -- Eagles will have a great offense this year.
Finley/5 -- Will be a a fantasy factor.
McMichael/9 -- Stay away from the Rams.