Fantasy Football 4 Winners

Draft 2

2009-09-12T08:43:00.002-04:00

OK. Here are the results for my 2nd draft of the season. Ten man league, 4th pick, non PPR. We do use a flex player.
Scoring for TDs - 6pts (1-39yds), 9pts (40-49yds), 12 pts (50+yds). Yds - 1pt for every 30yds for QBs and 1pt for every 10 for WR, TE, RB.

Round 1 -- Michale Turner/4 -- Surprised he got this far (Peterson, Jones-Drew and Forte drafted ahead). I had Turner as the number 2 back so I was extremely happy getting him with the 4th pick.
Round 2 -- Chris Johnson/7 -- Are you kidding me? 17 picks into the draft and he is still available. Huge mistake by the rest of the league.
Round 3 -- Jacobs/10 -- Big decision to make here. Already have 2 great RBs and Greg Jennings is sitting there waiting to be picked. I went with Jacobs because there was a considerable drop off with the remaining backs. I'm not a huge fan of Portis or S Jackson this year (my next two available RBs) so I decided to take a quality RB to give me depth and a great flex players. I saw some quality at WR in the later rounds (Ochocinco, Royal etc). I am worried about Jacobs' injury history, though.
Round 4 -- Dwayne Bowe/8 -- I really thought Chad Ochocinco would be available here. Unfortunately, he was drafted 2 picks before me. I am concerned about this pick, but most people have him much higher than I do. This is the one time I really want to be proven wrong.
Round 5 -- McNabb/4 -- Not too much available with the WR position and I was eyeing up Royal as a good WR 2 later in the draft. More on that later. The QB left were McNabb, Romo and Cutler. I had Mach 5 the highest rated available QB and knew a few teams needed QBs after this pick.
Round 6 -- Eddie Royal/7 -- I round earlier than his ADP, but I really didn't want to take a chance of losing him. I really do like this pick.
Round 7 -- Giants/3 -- I know this may go against what most "experts" say, but getting a top notch DEF is very important, esp in this league. They were my highest rated DEF based on the scoring system we use.
Round 8 -- Cooley/8 -- Olsen went the pick before this and I almost fell out of my chair. I love Olsen this year, but can't really complain about Cooley.
Round 9 -- Donald Brown/6 -- Benson was my target, but went a few picks before me. I should have gambled on Cooley's availability here and taken Benson last round. Hopefully, that mistake won't come back to haunt me. I do like Brown and expect him to be a big part of the Colts' offense.
Round 10 -- Garrard/7 -- Wanted a quality back up because of McNabb's injury history. Rothlesberger was already gone and Garrard was my next highest available QB.
Round 11 -- Kaeding/5 -- The run of kickers was about to start.
Round 12 -- Packers/5 -- Could be a nice backup DEF with some upside
Round 13 -- Vernon Davis/6 -- Mr. Underachiever better have a good year.
Rond 14 -- Santana Moss/8 -- Here's where an owner needs to pay attention. Every other team but one had their RB, WR and FLEX slots filled I waited until now to take him. Not a big fan of him usually because of his inconsistency, but you can't argue with Moss beating this draft position.
Round 15 -- Lindell/9 -- A backup with will hopefully only see the field on Kaeding's bye week.

I need some feedback here. What does everybody think?

The first game of the season

2009-09-12T08:11:00.002-04:00

Nice work by the NFL to schedule the Steelers and Titans as Game 1 of the NFL season. They didn't disappoint. Here's the stats from Thursday with some fantasy perspective.

Steelers

Big Ben -- 33-43, 361yds, 1TD.
Parker -- 19 rushing yrds
Holmes -- 9 for 131yds, 1 TD
Ward -- 8 for 103 yds
Miller -- 8 for 64yds.

Well, as you can see the Steelers had NO run game against the Titans. I didn't expect a monster game from Parker, but 19 yds was pathetic. What really surprised me was that he wasn't even in at the end of the game. After all the talk about Parker being their goal line back and how much work he would be getting this season, not having him in at the end of the game is alarming. I had him further down my draft list than most, but after hearing about Mendenhall's ineffectiveness, I move him up a little. Well, if you own Parker, I'd be worried. Don't drop him just yet, but be on the look out for quality free agent additions.
Big Ben was ridiculous against the Titans. If he can do that against a strong defense, what the heck will he do against everybody else? Now, here's the question. Is Pitt's offense going to be more of a passing offense like they were 2 years ago? If so, Big Ben will put up impressive numbers. I think they want to run, but Parker needs to be much more effective. I'm sure most drafted Ben as a great QB2. If he performs even close to what he did on Thursday the rest of the season, you may have found yourself a great QB1. My one concern is the sacks (4) and hits he took against the Titans. Pitt has a bad OL and all those drop backs are going to add up to a lot of bumps and bruises for Ben. If he is your starter, make sure you have a good backup. I just worry about QBs getting hit that much.
Holmes and Ward looked great as well. My concern with drafting either of them this year was trying to identify who would be the number 1 WR. I'd edge towards Holmes, but you can't go wrong with either when the offense looks that good. Looks like Pitt is going to have to pass a lot more than originally thought.

Titans

Collins -- 22-35, 244yds, 1Td
Chris Johnson -- 16 touches for 68 total yds.
White -- 8 for 28
Britt -- 4 for 85 yds
Gage -- 7 for 78yds, 1 TD

Another team with an ineffective run game. I drafted Johnson in one league so his final numbers were really disappointing to me. I wasn't expecting greatness, but 1 TD would have really been nice. Don't worry Johnson if you own him. The Steelers have an incredible defense that is capable of shutting down anybody. It was nice to see Johnson dominating the touches over White. That will continue as the season wears on. Remember how good Chester Taylor was for the Vikings before Peterson was drafted. Their first season together allowed both backs to get a lot of touches, but Peterson quickly took over the next year. Expect the same thing with the Titans. Johnson should easily finish in the top 8 of RBs.
The Titans passing offense looked pretty good, but don't go picking up all their players. They are going to be a run first, second and third team with an occasional pass thrown in between. I don't trust their receivers or Collins for the long haul.

1 draft down. 1 to go

2009-09-03T09:52:00.006-04:00

OK. I FINALLY finished my first draft of the season. Could be a pretty good year, but there are some things to keep an eye on. Wouldn't really be a fun season unless there was some drama.

8 person league. 2nd pick. Starters -- 1QB, 2RBs, 2 WRs, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF, 1FLEX, 8 bench players
Pretty standard scoring with a 3pt bonus for QB yds over 300 and rush/receiving over 100. NonPPR.

Round 1 - Michael Tuner/4 -- Peterson already gone. Pretty easy pick
Round 2 - Steve Slaton/10 -- It was between him and Westbrook.
Round 3 - Calvin Johnson/7 -- I took him over Portis because of RB value later in the draft and no WRs yet.
Round 4 - Kevin Smith/7 -- Lost out on Portis and Barber, but can't really complain with the pick. He's a pretty good flex player
Round 5 - Ryan Grant/5 -- Was thinking WR, but couldn't let that much RB talent go to another team at this point in the draft.

Now I have 2 of my ranked RB1s and 2 RB2s and a WR1. Doing pretty well, but need WRs going forward.

Round 6 - Philip Rivers/5 - McNabb, Romo Warner were also available, but there were no solid WRs at this point so I decided to go for the highest remaining QB.
Round 7 - Chad Ochocinco/8 -- I loved this pick and it's why I went QB last round. Great value here.
Round 8 - Cedric Benson/8 -- At this point, I didn't like the remaining WRs and decided to see what would be available later in the draft. RB depth is never a bad thing.
Round 9 - Greg Olsen/5 -- Loved this pick and once again didn't want to force a WR just because of lack of a quality backup. The top 4 TEs were already gone. I think Olsen could move up into the top 4 by the end of the season.
Round 10 - Jay Cutler/5 -- I had him as a quality QB 1 and couldn't resist getting that kind of talent in Round 10. Rivers is playing a much harder schedule so now I can use a QB by committee with two legit number 1s.

I love my Rbs right now. There's a ton of depth and potential trade bait going forward. The Cutler thing may have been overkill, but Rivers' schedule is a little scary and I wasn't sure if Cutler would be available that late. Again, potential trade bait here as well. The depth at WR is concerning, but why force the issue with inferior talent. WRs will spring up later in the season and hopefully, I can nail one of them and stay away from injuries with Johnson and Ocho.

Round 11 - Kevin Walter/10 -- L Coles was sitting there, but I already had two Bengals and didn't want my WR 3 to be him (2 games against BALT and PITT is a little scary). I had Domenik Hixon rated higher, but the emergence of Hakeem Nicks made me think twice.
Round 12 - Laveranues Coles/8 - Don't mind him here now that Walter is on the team. He could be a big value here, but that is by no means a guarantee.
Round 13 - Chargers/5 -- I loved this pick. The DEFs were starting to fly off the board.
Round 14 - Earnest Graham/8 - Shocking! Another RB. I took a value pick here. He may pay off in the end if he can stay healthy.
Round 15 - Percy Harvin/9 - Total flyer pick here. I was at the bottom of the barrel for WRs and wanted to add one more for depth. MINN wants to get him involved so there is some upside.

Added some WR depth, but will definitely be looking for up and coming talent during the season. Week 5 is going to be scary. So many guys on a bye and the Bengals and Lions play PITT and BALT. Somebody up there hates me. Every year I get screwed over by a BYE week.

Round 16 - David Garrard/7 - Wanted a quality backup for Week 5 since Cutler and Rivers are off. This was my highest rated available QB. He does have some upside so the value is tremendous.
Round 17 - Kris Brown/10 - Needed a Kicker and the BYE week struck again.

Once again, I made a stupid mental mistake. The Number 1 pick had two selections after my Round 16 pick and then I was up again. For some reason, I missed him picking up a backup QB earlier (Favre) and knew he already had a Kicker (Gostkowski). I was nervous about losing Garrard even though there were three QBs ranked ahead of him left based on ADP. I went with Garrard. The remaining number 1 Kickers were Elam/4, Crosby/5 and K Brown/10. There no way he would take another Kicker, right? He did and it was Elam even though ADP had Crosby rated higher. Now, I have a tough decision to make. There are no backups for Olsen and the Chargers and both have Week 5 BYES, making Crosby an almost impossible pick. I had to settle for K Brown. I know its not the end of the world, but lack of attention can really hurt you down the road. I totally blew it here.
I usually take a back up for whatever position (TE, K, DEF) has its BYE first then drop that player and add a backup for the next one, etc. This year I decided to take depth at (RB, WR, QB) and wait until Week 5 to make that call. Injuries or ineffectiveness can make the decision for me so why waste a pick you are just going to lose anyway.
There you have it. My first draft of the season has come to an end. Let me know what you think.

Defenses (updated 9/2/09)

2009-09-02T08:17:00.002-04:00

Starters

Steelers/8
Ravens/7
Vikings/9
Giants/10
Eagles/4
Titans/7
Pats/8
Chargers/5
Packers/5

Backups

Jets/9
Cowboys/5
Bears/5
Colts/6
Bucs8
Redskins/8
Dolphins/6
Cardinals/4
Panthers/4
Jags/7
Bengals/8

Kickers (updated 9/2/09)

2009-09-02T08:13:00.003-04:00

There all the same so don't reach for any of these guys.

Starters

Bironas/7
Gostkowski/8
Kaeding/5
Elam/4
Crosby/5
Longwell/9
K Brown/10
Folk/6
Akers/4

Backups

Tynes/10
Gould/5
Lindell/9
Graham/8
Scobee/7
J Brown/9
Rackers/4
Kasay/4
Reed/8
Prater/7
Vinatieri/6

Upcoming articles

2009-08-31T22:04:00.000-04:00

Come back tomorrow. I'll update TEs, Kickers and DEF.

Updated Tight End Rankings (8/31/09)

2009-08-31T21:48:00.002-04:00

Starters

Witten/6 -- No T.O. means more TDs for Witten. Three popcorn vendors have already been let go. The loss of T.O. hurts away from the field too.
Gates/5 -- Healthy and an improved run game can only help. May even finsh number 1.
Gonzalez/4 -- Tough pick here because of his new situation, but its hard to ignore talent.
Dallas Clark/6 -- Has an injury history but the Colts' easier schedule will help improve his numbers.
Olsen/5 -- Should be an absolute stud this year.
Cooley/8 -- Don't like the Redskin offense, but Cooley will have a bounce back year.
Daniels/10 -- Consistently puts up good, not great, numbers.
Winslow/8 -- Don't really like the Bucs this year, but he should be ok.

Backups

Zach Miller/9 -- I'd really try to stay away from all the Raiders this year.
Keller/9 -- Rookie QB and weak WRs makes Keller look really good.
Shockey/5 -- You're taking a risk with this pick, but it may just pay off.
H. Miller/8 -- Solid, but not spectacular.
V Davis/6 -- So much wasted talent.
Shiancoe/9 -- Stats will be hurt the this season's additions.
Carlson/7 -- Not really sure where all the love is coming from.
Fasano/6 -- Not believe all the Wildcat hype.
Scheffler/7 -- Not a big fan, but he does give some upside if things go right.
Celek/4 -- Eagles will have a great offense this year.
Finley/5 -- Will be a a fantasy factor.
McMichael/9 -- Stay away from the Rams.

Updated WR rankings (8/31/09)

2009-08-31T21:33:00.002-04:00

Player/BYE

WR1

R Moss/8 -- Brady is back and healthy.
Fitzgerald/4 -- Is there anything this guy can't do?
Calvin Johnson/7 -- MEGATRON is the man.
Jennings/5 -- Brett Favre who??????????
Wayne/6 -- Peyton Manning plus an easier schedule and a better run game.
Steve Smith/4 -- He may be small, but this dude can sure catch a football.
Rod White/4 -- I worry some about Gonzalez, but there should be enough to go around.
Andre Johnson/10 -- Not loving him any higher than this, but can't drop him to the next level.

WR2

Boldin/4 -- Some injury concern, but will get a ton of opportunities.
Ochocinco/8 -- The Bengals are back - SOMEWHAT
Eddie Royal/7 -- Orton's number 1 target.
Welker/8 -- Tom Brady will find a way to get him the ball.
Bowe/8 -- Not loving this pick. KC is going to be bad, but somebody has to catch the ball.
Colston/5 -- Upside, but injury prone.
Owens/9 -- The toe should be fine. Too bad the OL won't be.
Houshmandzadeh/7 -- The OL is beat up so be careful with this one. He is still a great WR.
B Edwards/9 -- Does it really matter who throws the ball in Cleavland? They stink!
Deshawn Jackson/4 -- I expect an improvement over last year.
Santonio Holmes/8 -- Offense will be helped by an easier schedule.
Roy Williams/6 -- Risky pick, but I'll willing to take a shot.

RB Ranking (8/31/09)

2009-08-31T21:15:00.002-04:00

Player/BYE

NUMBER 1 RBs

Peterson/9 -- Too much of a stud to ignore.
Turner/4 -- Atlanta's offense is going to be scary good
Tomlinson/5 -- Don't believe the end of Tomlinson has already begun.
Jones-Drew/7 -- Better line will help numbers.
Chris Johnson/7 -- Will continue to dominate the Titans' backfield.
Forte/5 -- Cutler will take the pressure off.
Slaton/10 -- Somebody has to pick up the slack when Schaub gets hurt.
Westbrook/4 -- Injury risk, but huge upside. Make sure you are strong at the position if you take him.
Gore/6 -- When Mike Martz leaves, RBs benefit.

RB2

DeAngelo Williams/4 -- Injury should be healed. Don't expect a repeat of last year.
Portis/8 -- Betts is slowly taking away carries.
Jacobs/10 -- Great talent, but sees the trainer too much.
Stephen Jackson/9 -- Too much of an injury risk to be with the top backs.
Barber/6 -- The human bowling ball will have more competition this year.
Ronnie Brown/6 -- Will defenses figure out the Wildcat?
Kevin Smith/7 -- The Lions are improved.
Ryan Grant/5 -- I'm expecting a bounce back this year. Their offense will be lights out this year.
Pierre Thomas/5 -- If his knee heals, he will be a value.
Thomas Jones/9 -- Don't like all the competition this year.
Marshawn Lynch/9 -- After the suspension, he should continue racking up the yards.

Updated QB Rankings (8/31/09)

2009-08-31T20:59:00.002-04:00

It's the most wonderful time of the year. FANTASY DRAFT SEASON. Time to revisit the player rankings to keep you one step ahead of the competition.

QB
Player/BYE

Starters -- Make sure you get one of these players as your fantasy QB.

Brady/8 -- No questions about the knee or shoulder.
Brees/5 -- Stud offense
P Manning/6 -- Easier schedule and improved run game
Rodgers/5 -- Legitimate shot to finish in the top three.
Rivers/5 -- A slight let down from last year, but will still give numbers. Team now healthy.
McNabb/4 -- If healthy, could be a major fantasy contributor. Easier schedule.
Romo/6 -- Down from last year, but still a good starting QB.
Cutler/5 -- Team not as good, but they didn't bring him to Chicago to hand the ball off.
Warner/4 -- Some concern about his health, but his upside balances that out.

Reserves

Roethlisberger/8 -- Better schedule. Don't worry about injury.
Ryan/4 -- Your looking at the next great QB in the NFL. This could be his breakout year.
Garrard/7 -- Totally under rated. Line healthy.
Palmer/8 -- Bounce back year. Potential finish in the top 8.
Orton/7 -- I'd take a chance here, but don't reach.
Schaub/10 -- I don't like him as a starter, but good backup.
Hasselbeck/7 -- Seattle's lack of an OL is concerning, but there is improved talent on the team.

Others

Cassell/8 -- Not a fan and will probably miss some of the season with a knee injury.
Flacco/7 -- Second year slump???
Edwards/9 -- NO OL and T.O. could have some injury problems
E Manning/10 -- Who is he going to throw to.

A sad day in Philadelphia

2009-08-14T12:43:00.002-04:00

I know this has nothing to do with fantasy football, but it's still an important topic. In case any of you live under a rock, Michael Vick signed with the Eagles yesterday. To say I'm shocked and disappointed would be an understatement. Say what you want about the Eagles and their ownership, you can't argue that this has been a top notch organization for the past several years. Why would they put their reputation on the line for a guy like this? I listened to the press conferences and heard all the P.R. phrases, but none of that moved me. This guys is a complete scumbag and I don't think he is the slightest bit sorry for what he did. Should Roger Goodell have let him back in the league? Yes. He did serve his time and deserves the right to work. Would I as an owner ever sign him? No way. I'm all for second chances, but you have to be truly sorry for your actions in order to get that opportunity. Vick is saying and doing what needs to be done in order to start making money again. I really want to hear your opinions on this. Would you go out of your way to sign a guy like Michael Vick?

ADVICE TO ROOKIE OWNERS

2009-08-01T11:04:00.004-04:00

Remember the stories from high school? The freshman who buys the fourth floor pool pass when there are only three floors to the building. How about locker insurance? Did anybody ever ask if you wanted a senior bodyguard? Well, fantasy football isn't much different. Be careful of the owner, supposedly your friend, that offers to take you under his wing. He may offer a few "pointers" and is more than willing to "help" you during the draft. STAY AWAY FROM THIS PERSON. He is only interested in collecting your money at the end of the season. Follow these important tips and remember one very specific rule - when it comes to fantasy football, your own mother would probably sell you out to win the title.

Don't draft kickers until very late in the draft. Despite the "rumors", Mason Crosby is not more valuable than Adrian Peterson.
Running backs are like gold - treat them as such. Good luck trying to trade for one if you need help. Your first born, 1/2 of your retirement savings and a date with your hot sister might get you the 25th best running back if you are also willing to give up 4 other players.
Pay attention to the status of players. Make sure your list doesn't include players currently on the I.R. list, retired, or in jail (surprisingly a popular NFL activity).
Be careful with sleepers. I know the backup tight end of the Rams had 1 good practice and was "catching everything in site", but chances are he won't be breathing down Jason Witten's neck by the end of the year.
Loading up on Tight Ends in case one gets hurt will not win you the championship. Tight Ends have value, but drafting your backup in the first 10 rounds is not a good idea.
Kerry Collins will not win the passing title and isn't a step slower than Michael Vick. One of the keys to a successful draft is knowing what your players can and can't do. You may overhear fellow owners having a conversation, probably on purpose, about how a player will finish. Don't be fooled. If you did your research, you'll quickly be able to sort through all the B.S. shoveled around during the draft.

I hope this gives you rookie owners something to think about. This is a cut throat business. Don't underestimate what your friend would be willing to do just to win that trophy and have bragging rights for the entire year. Now, if you are a rookie in one of my leagues, have faith that I would never stoop to that level. I understand what you are feeling a want to see you succeed. Take it from me, Torry Holt may be old, Chad Pennington weak armed and Tim Hightower a backup, but these players will be STUDS this year. Draft them early and decide how you are going to spend all your winning.

2 Poll quesitons.

2009-07-29T20:31:00.002-04:00

Just wanted to say thanks again to all those who have visited the site. Please spread the word and don't forget to leave your comments. I'll be adding more info this weekend so check back.

I also posted a second poll question. In case you haven't figured it out already, I am TOTALLY SICK AND TIRED of Brett Favre. What do you guys think?

You gotta check this site out

2009-07-28T20:49:00.005-04:00

I came across another great fantasy website called My Fantasy Players. The first time I checked it out, it reminded me of what's it's like to be with my friends the days leading up to the draft. Everybody is trying to get insight into what the other owners are thinking. "How's Tomlinson going to finish?" Will Brady's knee hold up?" How can you even consider wasting that high a pick on Steven Jackson?" Though this site, you get to do that with a much broader audience. Pick a player and you jump right into a discussion about his upcoming season. Feel free to throw your own views out there to see if your opinions measure up with the rest of the fantasy world. Don't just take my word for it. Check it out for yourselves and let me know what you think. You can link off this post or go to my blog roll.

The Almighty Brett

2009-07-27T21:40:00.002-04:00

Will somebody please tell Brett Favre to go away? He is like a major hemorrhoid that won't go away. The story and his constant uncertainty about his future is boring. You can tell people are sick of it because even ESPN stopped their new breaks every time Brett took a breath. He can stay in Mississippi and play with the high school kids. I'm sure he'll only throw 1 or 2 INTs/game against that competition.

Defenses (updated 7/26)

2009-07-26T13:37:00.002-04:00

Tier 1

Steelers
Ravens
Vikings

Tier 2

Eagles
Titans
Giants

Tier 3

Patriots
Colts
Bears
Chargers
Bucs
Jets
Cowboys
Packers

Tier 4

Redskins
Dolphins
Cardinals
Panthers
Jags
Bengals

Kicker Rankings (updated 7/26)

2009-07-26T13:28:00.002-04:00

Tier 1

Rob Bironas
Stephen Gostkowski
Garett Hartley
Mason Crosby
Nate Kaeding

Tier 2

David Akers
Jason Elam
Ryan Longwell
Kris Brown
Matt Prater

Tier 3

Josh Brown
Nick Folk
Ryan Lindell
Robbie Gould
Neil Rackers
Shayne Graham
Adam Vinatieri
Josh Scobee (Doobee Doooooo)
Lawrence Tynes
Jeff Reed

Draft Help

2009-07-19T07:37:00.002-04:00

Even though you put in hours of time preparing for the draft and think you have everything figured out, a fantasy season can quickly unravel before it starts unless you know HOW TO DRAFT. It's not just about picking the best players. You have to learn how and when to pick them.

Prior to the draft, determine where the quality fantasy starters stop at each position. Example - if you are comfortable with your 9th ranked QB as your starter for the year, but not the 10th and beyond, you have to make sure to get one of your first 9 choices. Do this at every position. If you did your homework, you will be able to see where the quality falls and the risks increase.
Identify what positions are loaded with talent and which ones offer only a few choices. Maybe there are only 4 quality starting QBs this year. You believe a good QB is the key to success so you may have to adjust your draft strategy and take a QB early. If the position is loaded with talent, wait and draft players at other positions. If you think there will be a lot of good RBs in the later rounds, draft a WR or two with your first few picks.
Try to determine when players will be drafted. If you have a player listed high on your list and know that most sources have him ranked much lower, wait and strengthen another position. You can also take your next choice and come back for the higher ranked player a few rounds later. It's all about getting value with each pick.
How much value do you place at each position? How important is it to have one of the best TEs? Do you like to take one of the top defenses? Do you really need to have a stong WR2 or would a good RB3 be better? I'm a huge fan of drafting RBs early, but also believe that any good team must have a consistent QB. It doesn't have to be Brady or Breese, but it can't be Chad Pennington or Joe Flacco.

How hard will it be to replace a pick? Maybe you like to take the best player available so you really don't pay much attention to the RB position early in the draft. What happens if your best RB goes down? Considering that the top RBs are usually gone by the end of Round 3, you really won't have much to pick from during the season if your starter goes down. You also have to keep in mind that every owner will be looking for help at RB during the season. Now you're in a fight with 9 other owners trying to get the 1 or 2 RBs left that actually have a chance to be fantasy relevant.

Pay attention to how your league drafts. Once you're in a league for a few seasons, you can get a feel for when the "runs" at different positions start. Try to stay ahead of the curve. If WRs start flying off the board in Round 3 and you have an early pick in that round, make sure you take a quality starter with one of your first three picks.
Don't be afraid to take risks. Remember this when you are preparing your draft lists. If a player consistently finishes outside the top 30 and you are down to that point in your draft, why not take a chance on somebody else with a much bigger upside. It's not costing you a high pick, but the rewards could put you in the championship. Example -- Chris Johnson wasn't drafted in either of my leagues. Now, considering how much the Titans run and how many positive things were said about Johnson during the preseason, don't you think it would have been a good idea to take a shot on him instead of a player you have no confidence in.

TE Sleepers and Busts

2009-07-19T07:26:00.002-04:00

Busts

John Carlson -- ADP 9. I was lucky enough to get Carlson late in the season last year, but 2009 is a different story. The signing of Houshmandzadeh and the healthy return of Nate Burleson and Dion Branch will limit his numbers dramatically. Don't take a chance this year.

Kellen Winslow -- ADP 6. I may be way off on this one, but I don't like Winslow this high. Tampa's QB situation is horrible and the team will probably look to run the ball on every play. I'd wait for safer picks like Cooley or Daniels.

Sleepers

Dustin Keller -- ADP 10. I don't expect him to go much higher than this, but wouldn't be surprised to see Keller finish in the top 7. A rookie QB and with limited receiver talent makes Keller look like a great pick late in the draft.

TE Rankings (updated 7/18)

2009-07-18T20:37:00.003-04:00

Tier 1

Jason Witten -- No TO means even more passes for Witten.
Antonio Gates -- Hurt most of last year. Keep an eye out for his toe injury.
Tony Gonzalez -- Tough to judge this one. He is on a new team with plenty of weapons, but still has most upside than most other TEs
Dallas Clark -- Manning is healthy and the Colts' schedule is much easier. Will probably miss a game or two.

Tier 2

Kellen Winslow -- New team, but still no QB.
Chris Cooley -- Expect a bounce back year.
Greg Olsen -- Cutler+No Wrs = points for Olsen.
Owen Daniels -- One of the most underrated TEs in football. Watch possible holdout.

Tier 3

Zach Miller -- Drafting anybody on the Raiders is risky
Dustin Keller -- The loss of Favre and Coles will help his numbers
Jeremy Shockey -- Too much hype for a guy that is hurt all the time.
Visanthe Shiancoe -- Numbers should drop, but still ok. Don't like as a starter.
Heath Miller -- Pitt doesn't pass a lot and Holmes and Ward will get theirs.
Anthony Fasano -- I don't trust Pennington or the Dolphins' gadget offense.
Tony Scheffler -- Too much risk, esp with injuries.

Tier 4

Kevin Boss -- Manning has to throw to somebody
John Carlson -- NEWSFLASH : Seattle now has healthy WRs.
Bo Scaife -- Still not over drafting him as my starting TE 2 years ago. He stunk, but has a great year last year.
Vernon Davis -- Recently voted the Captain of Team Under Performers. Too much talent. Not enough numbers.
Marcedes Lewis -- A healthy OL and Garrard should help his numbers.

Thank to the followers of FF4W

2009-07-18T20:29:00.004-04:00

Just wanted to take a second to say thank you to all the people that have visited my site. As of now, there are three followers of fantasyfootball4winners, with many more to come. To my followers, thanks for taking the time to join in the fun. Hopefully, you will gain more than enough info to win your leagues. Please keep the comments coming and tell your friends.

Scott

Wide Receiver Fantasy Sleepers and Busts (updated 7/18)

2009-07-18T09:14:00.003-04:00

They're aren't too many WRs out of line so this will be a short list.

Sleepers

Chad OchoCinco -- ADP 18. He used to be a top 3 WR. I really don't see the Bengals or Johnson getting back to their production from a few years ago, but this will be a rebound season. His ADP is low. How many other WRs around this ADP have the talent of Ocho? He is a solid WR2 and will give occasional WR1 output.

Busts

Marques Colston -- ADP 10. I really like him and the team, but he gets hurt too much. Will Shockey play more of a role this year? I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish in, or right outside, the top 10, but owners will be crossing their fingers each week.

2009 WR Ranking (Updated 7/18)

2009-07-18T08:36:00.002-04:00

Tier 1

Larry Fitzgerald -- great offense. Don't worry about the run game becoming a major factor.
Randy Moss -- could very well be the number 1 WR again. Too much upside to fall below 2.
Calvin Johnson -- MEGATRON is not human. The team should be better, but there is no doubt who will be getting a majority of the touches.

Tier 2

Greg Jennings -- GB still has a great offense. The run game will be improved, but not dominate.
Reggie Wayne -- Manning in healthy and the run game should be improved. The schedule is also easier.
Steve Smith -- As long as he doesn't punch out somebody this off-season, expect big numbers.
Roddy White -- This is a tough pick because of the addition of Gonzalez. May fall some, but should still be great.
Andre Johnson -- May move him ahead of White. I'm not sold on Schaub.

Tier 3

Anquan Boldin -- The Cardinals will win through the air and play in a joke division.
Terrell Owens -- He is a TD machine. Somewhat risky because he is on the Bills, but I'd take a chance.
Brandon Marshall -- Assuming he is healthy and doesn't hold out, Marshall should have a great year.

Tier 4

Braylon Edwards -- The starting QB is still in question and he can't stop dropping passes. There is some risk with Edwards, but you can do much worse at WR2.
Dwayne Bowe -- Answer this question to determine where to rank Bowe. Do you trust Matt Cassell?
Wes Welker -- Brady is back. Enough said.
Chad OchoCinco -- I really hate typing that last name. Despite his need to give much of his salary back to the NFL in the way of fines, Chad can still play football. I expect a bounce back year for him and the Bengals.
TJ Houshmandzadeh -- New team and now the true number 1. Seattle should be improved on offense. Hopefully, the medical staff will get the year off.
Desean Jackson -- The E-A-G-L-E-S reloaded this off season. As long as McNabb is healthy, Jackson should improve again this season.
Marques Colston -- He is the number 1 WR on one of the best offenses in the game. Unfortunately, he likes the trainers table too much.

Tier 5

Antonio Bryant -- I really don't like the QB situation in Tampa.
Roy Williams -- The offense is still good. Could surprise some this year.
Santonio Holmes -- Not a great passing offense and Ward will get his. An easier schedule will help.
Eddie Royal -- Can you say Wes Welker 2?
Vincent Jackson -- Gates and Tomlinson are now healthy.
Santana Moss -- Too inconsistent for me.

Tier 6

Hines Ward -- Getting older and Holmes may be ready to take over.
Jerricho Cotchery -- I don't trust the QB situation in NY.
Laveranues Coles -- Could turn in a nice season if the Bengals can bounce back.
Anthony Gonzalez -- He will be the third option in the passing game, but Manning is working with a much easier schedule.
Bernard Berrian -- With or without Favre, this is a run first team.

Runningback Fantasy Sleepers and Busts

2009-07-18T08:20:00.004-04:00

Sleepers

Pierre Thomas -- ADP 18. I really liked what he was able to do at the end of the year. He's going to split with Bush, so don't expect monster numbers early. Bush is bound to get injured and Thomas will be the main beneficiary.

Busts

Stephen Jackson -- ADP 6. I'm not sure how anybody can justify taking Jackson this high. I know the Rams' OL is supposed to be better, but this team stinks. There are no other weapons on the team, plus he is an injury risk. Your first pick should not have that many question marks. RBs are too hard to replace during the season.

DeAngelo Williams -- ADP 5. There's no doubt Williams had a great year last year. I'm just not sold on a repeat. The Panther's schedule was a joke and Williams took full advantage. An ADP of 5 is very high, so you better be sure your guy is going to perform at that level. I'd definitely draft Williams early, just not at 5. Look to Chris Johnson or Tomlinson.

2009 RB Rankings (updated 7/7)

2009-07-07T20:38:00.003-04:00

Tier 1
Adrian Peterson -- scared about injuries, but he puts up a ton of stats.
Matt Forte -- I expect him to have a monster year. Cutler will get the Bears so far-Forte will finish.
Michael Turner -- I expect stats to drop a little, but not enough to keep him out of the top 5.
LaDainian Tomlinson -- Remember when he was the best fantasy player. Expect a comeback.

Tier 2

Maurice Jones-Drew -- Offense, esp OL, will be better and no Fred Taylor. I may move him down a few spots, but want to see offense in action first. First time as true number 1.
Chris Johnson -- Had a great 08 and should continue in 09. Team will use him a lot.
DeAngelo Williams -- TD machine on a team that loves to run. I expect stats to drop and may move him down a few more spots. Just not sold on last year's performance.

Tier 3

Steve Slaton -- great RB, but you need to be careful about team injuries.
Frank Gore -- solid pick this year.
Clinton Portis -- should have another strong year.
Brian Westbrook -- I'm not ready to write him off yet, but you have to be careful with his injuries. Top 5 potential if he is healthy.
Brandon Jacobs -- Gets a ton of TDs, but also a lot of injuries.

Tier 4

Steven Jackson -- don't buy the hype this year. The Rams STINK.
Marion Barber -- Felix Jones will play a big part on this offense.
Pierre Thomas -- I love this pick. Great value, esp if (when) Bush gets hurt. May move him up.
Ronnie Brown -- 1 yr removed from knee injury. Good, but don't reach.
Knowshon Moreno -- Rookie on a brand new Denver team. Could have a lot of value here.
Reggie Bush -- great out of the backfield, but just can't stay healthy.
Ryan Grant -- I expect a comeback season
Marshawn Lynch -- Suspended for beginning of season.

Tier 5

Thomas Jones -- a lot of competition on team. Watch Leon Washington.
Kevin Smith -- good back. Could surprise some this year.
Derrick Ward -- RISK/REWARD pick. First time starter.
Cedric Benson -- The Bengals should be better.
Larry Johnson -- great runner-bad team. May move up a spot or two.
LenDale White -- Gets a lot of TDs, but will lose carries to Johnson.
Joseph Addai -- not a big fan this year. Donald Brown could steal the show.
James Stewart -- solid running team.

Tier 6

Chris Wells -- despite the hype, the team won't run that effectively.
Leon Washington -- value at this position
Darren McFadden -- RAIDERS=RISK
Donald Brown -- Addai starter, but should get carries
Julius Jones -- DON'T LIKE HIM A LITTLE BIT.
Willie Parker -- Too much competition and already has 1 foot out of town.
Chestor Taylor -- backup to a RB that gets hurt - HMMMMMMMMMMM
Ray Rice -- Ravens backfield will give owners headaches this year.
Jamal Lewis -- Never a fan of his.
Fred Taylor -- Old, but could be effective on the Pats.
Earnest Graham -- Behind Ward
Felix Jones -- played well before injury.

DRAFTING FOR A CHAMPIONSHIP

2009-07-02T13:15:00.004-04:00

Let's face it. We all love to play fantasy football and probably have learned a thing or two along the way. Our strategies may be different, but the overall goal for every fantasy player is the same- we want to be the last owner standing. For me, the following tips have been instrumental in helping me win multiple titles.

Know your league rules. It sounds crazy, but some owners just don't know how their leagues are run. How can you make a decision on a player if you don't know how his stats turn into fantasy points?
Get a true ranking of last year's fantasy stats. Looking at last year's numbers is a good idea, but don't forget to adjust for injuries, suspensions, etc. Check out my article on making adjustments to the final numbers. CLICK HERE
Make sure you trust your source of information. Anybody can put out cheat sheets. If they're not accurate, then you are just wasting your time.
Track team changes (free agency, addition/subtraction of coaches, NFL draft, schedule differences). Every season is completely different. You need to know how all of these changes will affect the players you are looking to draft.
Get individual player reviews. This gives a little more insight into how your source views each player, but don't believe everything you read.
You can't see the forest through the trees. This is where owners must take control of their own teams. Look at all of the info you collected to make a determination as to how YOU want to rank the players. Even good sources can be wrong. If their predictions don't make sense based on the information you obtained, then don't be afraid to adjust the rankings. Cheat sheets are great, but don't be a slave to them.

Thankfully, there are a lot of good fantasy sources out there that will give you what you need to win a title (hint -- my blog is a great place to start). You just have to be willing to put in a little time and effort. It's worth it.

QB FANTASY SLEEPERS and BUSTS

2009-07-01T14:13:00.008-04:00

SLEEPERS

Carson Palmer -- ADP 12. Expect the Bengals to rebound this season. Palmer is healthy and plays a much easier schedule. Would definitely take over Matt Schaub (ADP 10). Palmer will cost a lot less than Ryan (ADP 9), but will have similar, if not better, results.
David Garrard -- ADP 17. He's not flashy, but Garrard will be solid this year. The team is healthy and the schedule easier. Expect him to finish ahead of Schaub (ADP 10), Roethlisberger (ADP 13), Cassel (ADP 14) and Eli Manning (ADP 15).
Kyle Orton -- ADP 18. Fantasy football is all about taking calculated risks and Orton represents one of the best opportunities for maximum return on your investment.

BUSTS

Matt Schaub -- ADP 10. This year is loaded with quality starting QBs for your fantasy team. Why take a HUGE risk on Schaub? Everybody was so impressed with last's years numbers, but I'm not. If you take Shaub's average for the games he played and use that average to credit him for the games missed, Schaub would have finished 9th. His ADP this year is 10. Now, we all know Schaub is going to miss at least 2-3 games, if not more. The year's ADP is a ceiling, so there is no place to go but down. Plus, Andre Johnson has an injury history of his own. Let another owner worry about what week Schaub goes down.

2009 QB Rankings (updated 6/30)

2009-06-30T16:11:00.005-04:00

Scoring -- 1pt per 30 yds passing. 1 pt per 10 yds rushing. 6 pts for TDs under 40yds, 9pts for TDs 40-49yds and 12 pts for TDs 50+yds..

Tier 1 - Consistently puts up quality stats. All should battle for the number 1 slot. Very little down side.

1) Drew Brees -- Ranked 1 because he isn't coming off off major knee surgery.
2) Tom Brady -- Still has a great team and coaching staff. Knee should be fine.
3) Peyton Manning -- 2nd half average would have given him the 3rd place finish in 2008. Now Manning is 100% healthy.

Tier 2 -- All have a chance to finish as a top 5 QB and will put up occasional Tier 1 production. Great starting QB in any scoring format.

4) Aaron Rodgers -- 4th last year. Schedule about the same. Improved, not dominate, run game will only help stats as defenses will have to respect the Packers' backs this year.
5) Philip Rivers -- Harder schedule and the healthy return of LaDainian Tomlinson will lower stats slightly. Better upside than QB ranked below him. Could challenge for a top three spot.
6) Donovan McNabb -- Improved OL and better offensive weapons will help resurrect his fantasy career. Strong upside if he can stay healthy.
7) Tony Romo -- Roy Williams will be an adequate replacement for T.O. The return of Felix Jones will also help with the Cowboys' explosiveness.
8) Kurt Warner -- If Boldin remains with the team, Warner is a lock for the top 10. Keep an eye of his recovery from hip surgery.

Tier 3 - Still a quality fantasy starter. Will not carry your fantasy team, but will be consistent week after week.

9) Jay Cutler -- Cutler gave up a lot of receiving talent to come to the Bears, but Chicago's dominate run game will help keep defenses honest. Don't expect a repeat of last year's numbers.

Tier 4 -- Starting to take on more risk, but some of these QBs have upside. The following are great fantasy backups.

10) Carson Palmer -- He is now healthy and I expect the offense to be more focused. Not too many backups can give you the scoring potential of Palmer.
11) David Garrard -- Won't have a lot of upside, but should be a quality backup. OL is now healthy and the schedule is easier.
12) Matt Ryan -- I really think Ryan is going to be the next great QB. The addition of Gonzalez and an added year of experience should help to offset the Falcon's dramatically tougher schedule. I may move Ryan up to 10 and possibly into Tier 3, but want to see how the other QBs play first.
13) Matt Hasselbeck -- The walking wounded know as the Seahawks are back. Expect a rebound season from Hasselbeck with the addition of Houshmandzadeh. Low risk with some upside.
14) Matt Shaub -- I DON'T LIKE SHAUB. He gets hurt too much. End of story.
15) Kyle Orton -- Definite upgrade in team and coaching talent. Assuming Marshall is still in Denver, take a shot at Orton. He could be one of the biggest fantasy stories at the end of the year. I'm thinking of moving him up to number 13, but want to see how the new look Broncos play first.

Tier 5 - Risky picks. Average fantasy backups.

16) Joe Flacco -- UNI BROW had a strong second half. Expect his improvement to continue.
17) Matt Cassel -- Not sold on last year's hype. Team and coaching talent is inferior. Defenses now have a book on Cassel.
18 ) Trent Edwards -- T.O and Lee Evans are a potent combination. Can the offense get out of its own way? Has some upside if the passing attack starts to click.
19 ) Eli Manning -- The loss of Burress will hurt. Not much talent for Manning to throw to.
20) Shaun Hill -- This may be the year things come together for the 49ers. Low risk with some upside.
21) Jake Delhomme -- Strong running game and Steve Smith equals fantasy numbers. If Delhomme is healthy, he could be a surprise in 2009.

Tier 6 -- Don't draft unless you absolutely have to

22) Chad Pennington -- What will the Dolphins do for an en cour since the Wildcat is now out of the bag? You can't count on gimmicks to consistently win in the NFL. Substantial injury history.
23) Jason Campbell -- offense too conservative.
24) Mark Sanchez -- Rookie with a lot of pressure on his shoulders. Let him prove himself before taking a chance.
25) JaMarcus Russell -- He's on the Raiders and has Jeff Garcia breathing down his neck.

2009 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

2009-06-24T20:57:00.013-04:00

The NFC EAST plays the NFC South and the AFC West

Eagles -- Def rank - 3rd
Top ten defenses 7 (-1); Bottom ten defenses 6 (+2)

Cowboys -- Def Rank - 8th
Top ten defenses 7 (-2); Bottom ten defenses 7 (+4)
Giants -- Def Rank - 5th
Top ten defenses 8 (-1); Bottom ten defenses 6 (+3)
Redskins -- Def Rank - 4th
Top ten defenses 7 (-1); Bottom ten defenses 6 (+3)

The NFC NORTH plays the NFC West and the AFC North

Packers -- Def Rank - 20th
Top ten defenses 6 (+1); Bottom ten defenses 5 (0)
Vikings -- Def Rank - 6th
Top ten defenses 3 (0); Bottom ten defenses 5 (+1)
Bears -- Def Rank - 21st
Top ten defenses 5 (0); Bottom ten defenses 5 (0)
Lions -- Def Rank - 32nd
Top ten defenses 5 (0); Bottom ten defenses 4 (+2)

The NFC WEST plays the NFC North and the AFC North

49ers -- Def Rank - 13th
Top ten defenses 3 (-2); Bottom ten defenses 6 (0)
Seahawks -- Def Rank - 30th
Top ten defenses 4 (-2); Bottom ten defenses 3 (+1)
Rams -- Def Rank - 28th
Top ten defenses 3 (-2); Bottom ten defenses 4 (+1)
Cardinals -- Def Rank - 19th
Top ten defenses 3 (-3); Bottom ten defenses 5 (+1)

The NFC SOUTH plays the NFC East and the AFC East

Saints -- Def Rank - 23rd
Top ten defenses 7 (+3); Bottom ten defenses 4 (-3)
Bucs -- Def Rank - 9th
Top ten defenses 5 (+3); Bottom ten defenses 5 (-5)
Panthers -- Def Rank - 18th
Top ten defenses 8 (+4); Bottom ten defenses 4 (-5)
Falcons -- Def Rank - 24th
Top ten defenses 7 (+3); Bottom ten defenses 2 (-6)

The AFC EAST plays the AFC South and the NFC South

Dolphins -- Def Rank - 15th
Top ten defenses 5 (+2); Bottom ten defenses 3 (-3)
Pats -- Def Rank - 10th
Top ten defenses 3 (+2); Bottom ten defenses 3 (-3)
Bills -- Def Rank - 14th
Top ten defenses 4 (+2); Bottom ten defenses 4 (-3)
Jets -- Def Rank - 16th
Top ten defenses 4 (+1); Bottom ten defenses 3 (-3)

The AFC NORTH plays the AFC West and the NFC North

Steelers -- Def rank -- 1st
Top ten defenses 4 (-3); Bottom ten defenses 7 (+4)
Ravens -- Def Rank - 2nd
Top ten defenses 4 (-3); Bottom ten defenses 7 (+4)
Bengals -- Def Rank - 12th
Top ten defenses 5 (-4); Bottom ten defenses 5 (+4)
Browns -- Def Rank - 26th
Top ten defenses 5 (-4); Bottom ten defenses 5 (+4)

The AFC WEST plays the AFC North and the NFC East

Raiders -- Def Rank - 27th
Top ten defenses 6 (+3); Bottom ten defenses 7 (-1)
Chiefs -- Def Rank - 31st
Top ten defenses 6 (+3); Bottom ten defenses 7 (-1)
Chargers -- Def Rank - 25th
Top ten defenses 7 (+4); Bottom ten defenses 7 (-1)
Broncos -- Def Rank - 29th
Top ten defenses 7 (+5); Bottom ten defenses 7 (-2)

The AFC SOUTH plays the AFC East and the NFC West

Titans -- Def Rank - 7th
Top ten defenses 2 (-1); Bottom ten defenses 3 (0)
Texans -- Def Rank - 22nd
Top ten defenses 3 (-2); Bottom ten defenses 3 (0)
Jaguars -- Def Rank 17th
Top ten defenses 3 (-2); Bottom ten defenses 4 (+1)
Colts -- Def Rank - 11th
Top ten defenses 4 (-2); Bottom ten defenses 3 (0)

AFC NORTH

2009-06-24T19:46:00.012-04:00

2008 saw the Steelers win their 2nd Super Bowl in 4 years, the Ravens made the AFC Championship game behind a rookie QB from Delaware, the Browns quickly realized they weren't going to take anybody by surprise like the year before, and the Bengals, well let's just say the Bengals were their usual selves. If you drafted a lot of players from this division, your team probably looked like the Lions on a bad day. Fantasy studs like Carson Palmer, Chad OchoCinco and Braylon Edwards gave owners ulcers and probably caused them several sleepless nights. I was lucky enough to draft all three--Palmer and Ocho as a potent QB-WR threat in one league, and Braylon Edwards as my number 1 WR in another. What can I say? It sounded really good in September.
I see changes coming in 2009. For one thing, the AFC West and the defensively challenged Detroit Lions are upcoming opponents. I'm not a sarcastic person (YEAH RIGHT), but I think a bunch of us bloggers could field a team and score at will on any of these teams. Points should be up across the board. Don't let the piss poor efforts of last year ruin your judgment when looking to draft from this division in '09. Each team has some pretty good fantasy players, some with value at their current ADP.

Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 17th. Run - 23rd.
Schedule -- Top ten defenses - 4 (-3). Bottom ten defenses - 7 (+4)
Weapons -- Ben Roethlisberger -- 2008 fantasy finish - 12th; 2009 QB ADP - 13th. Willie Parker -- 2008 fantasy finish - 46th (missed 5); 2009 RB ADP - 28th. Santonio Holmes - 2008 fantasy finish - 30th (missed 1); 2009 WR ADP - 21st. Hines Ward - 2008 fantasy finish - 19th; 2009 WR ADP - 21st. Heath Miller -- 2008 fantasy finish - 18th; 2009 ADP - 16th.
Outlook -- Life is good for 27-year-old Ben Roethlisberger. He won the Rookie of the Year, went to the Pro Bowl, won two Super Bowls and has a sandwich named after him. What else could the guy want? How about an offensive line? Big Ben was sacked 49 times in 2008 and 47 in 2007; ranking 4th and 7th most in the league. That punishment has to start adding up. Even though he shed the "fragile" tag by only missing 1 game in the past three years, getting hit that much only increases his chances of getting injured.

Roethlisberger is a good, but not great, fantasy QB. The team doesn't have a true play maker and the Steelers love to run the ball, ranking in the top ten in attempts last year. I expect Ben's numbers to increase with an easier schedule, making him a solid QB2 with potential for a few weeks of QB1 numbers.

The Steelers run game is loaded with questions and should only be drafted with extreme caution. Willie Parker can't stay healthy and is too inconsistent. Rashard Mendenhall, entering his second year, has shown talent, but can't seem to adjust to the NFL game. Mewelde Moore was their most consistent back, but is only a part time player. I'd stay away from Parker. His ticket is almost written out of Pittsburgh so the other two backs are going to get plenty of work. The ball is spread too thin in the Steel City.

Baltimore Ravens
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 28th. Run - 4th.
Schedule -- Top ten defenses - 4 (-3). Bottom ten defenses - 7 (+4)
Weapons -- Joe Flacco -- 2008 fantasy finish - 17th; 2009 QB ADP - 20th. Willis McGahee -- 2009 fantasy finish - 34th (missed 2); 2009 RB ADP - 26th. Derrick Mason -- 2008 fantasy finish - 20th; 2009 WR ADP - 39th.
Outlook -- Joe Flacco walked into a great situation last year- a team with no established QB that loves to run the ball and has a dominating defense. He stepped in and led the Ravens to an 11-5 record and a playoff birth- not bad for the Delaware QB. Now, nobody is going to confuse Joe Flacco with Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, but he did show improvement as the season went on. Flacco increased his fantasy average from 12.4pts/game in the first half to 18/game for the second. Again, he isn't going to win you a fantasy championship and is only a decent back-up option since the Ravens play it close to the vest and run their opponents into submission. Draft Flacco as a late QB 2. The Ravens' easier schedule and an added year of experience should give Flacco a ceiling of a 15-16 QB ranking and probably keep him in the top twenty.

Fantasy football wouldn't be fun if everything were cut and dry. This year's perfect example is the Ravens run game. They ranked 4th in the league for rushing offense, but don't have a solid fantasy player in the backfield. Willis McGahee, the team's starting RB last year, and his annual knee injury all but ensures that Ray Rice and LeRon McClain will see increased carries this season. I would stay away from McGahee and maybe take a chance on McClain, since he will probably get most of the TDs. Just don't pay a high price. Like Pittsburgh, the Ravens RBs can't be counted on for strong weekly performances.

Cincinnati Bengals
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 30th. Run - 29th.
Schedule -- Top ten defenses - 5 (-4). Bottom ten defenses - 7 (+4).
Weapons -- Carson Palmer -- 2008 fantasy finish - 41st (missed 11); 2009 QB ADP - 12th. Chad Ochocinco -- 2008 fantasy finish - 52nd (missed 2); 2009 WR ADP - 20th. Laveranues Coles -- 2008 fantasy finish - 28th; 2009 WR ADP - 31st.
Outlook -- The Bengals would love to forget the 2008 season. It started when Chad Ochocinco put on a pair of diapers, grabbed a pacifier and cried about wanting out of Cincinnati. He then came crawling back to the team, only to hurt his shoulder in training camp. Ocho was forced to wear a harness for the first few games, but I'm sure his unsuccessful temper tantrum played a part in his lack of fantasy numbers.

The Cincinnati season was completely flushed down the toilet when Carson Palmer hurt his elbow early in the year. He tried playing through the pain, but was finally shut down after Week 5. Ryan Fitzpatrick filled in, but didn't have the same impact as Matt Cassel did in New England. To put in bluntly, he sucked, evidenced by the normally-consistent TJ Houshmandzadeh's finish outside the top 30 of wide receivers. The 2009 season can't be worse, can it?

Owners, don't overlook the Bengals this year. Their two big losses (Houshmandzadeh and Stacy Andrews) were replaced by Laveranues Coles and the 2009 number 6 overall pick OT Andre Smith. The schedule is easier, Palmer should be healthy and a full year of Cedric Benson will provide stability to the running back position. I've been a big Palmer fan for years and expect him to have a comeback season. He won't challenge for a top 5 finish, but will be a high risk/high reward QB1 this year and represents excellent value at his current ADP. The scary part is having to rely on Chad Ochocinco. There's no doubt the guy is borderline crazy, but knows how to play football. Expect Chad to look more like Johnson and less like Ocho.
Cleveland Browns
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 31st. Run - 26th.
Schedule -- Top ten defenses - 5 (-4). Bottom ten defenses - 5 (+4).
Weapons -- Brady Quinn - 2008 - only played in 3 games; 2009 QB ADP - 25th. Braylon Edwards -- 2008 fantasy finish - 34th; 2009 WR ADP - 17th. Jamal Lewis -- 2008 fantasy finish - 30th; 2009 RB ADP - 34th.
Outlook -- The Browns had impressive 2007 stats, but most of those were made in the 1st half of the season when defenses had no idea what to expect. They quickly adjusted and were able to significantly slow down the Browns at the end of the season. QB Derek Anderson averaged 263.5 yds and 2.1 TDs the first 8 games, but dropped to 209.9 yds and 1.5 TDs the second half. The Browns didn't even bother with a good start last year. They went right to horrible in Week 1. Anderson was awful and Brady Quinn showed why Notre Dame QBs not named Montana can't play in the NFL. All of the Browns players were overrated in 2008. I was never a fan of Jamal Lewis, but did rate Edwards high and drafted him in Round 3. What a disappointment.

2009 begins with a lot of questions but will probably have the same answers. The starting QB has yet to be determined and fantasy owners need to stay away. Anderson showed what happens to guys that aren't that talented once a defense gets accustomed to his style. Quinn has had doubters since last year's draft, and I happen to agree with them. He will be an average QB when he finally develops so don't expect much in 2009. Jamel Lewis is way too risky and will probably lose some carries to Jerome Harrison. Braylon Edwards should have a better year, esp since Winslow is gone, but last year's production is something to be concerned about.

Tom Brady and his knee

2009-06-22T21:48:00.008-04:00

The fantasy football gods came down hard on Tom Brady last year. Just 11 plays into the season and Brady was finished. Now, fantasy owners have to decide what that means for 2009. How confident are you in the reconstructed knee? Do you draft him in round 1 or 2 or let somebody else take the risk? Considering how many points the Pats are capable of putting up, you better get this question right.
In order to try and determine where Brady is in his recovery, put yourself behind the desks of Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft. You're coming off of a record-setting 2007 and a Super Bowl loss. Without Brady for the entire 2008 season, you almost make the playoffs with a career backup. Now, with all the success New England has had signing or releasing players, do you really think they would jeopardize their entire 2009 season by getting rid of Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel for a second round pick? It's not like Steve Young is sitting on the bench just waiting for his chance to start. Let's face it people...Matt Gutierrez, Brian Hoyer and Kevin O'Connel aren't Hall of Fame players. If Brady goes down again, the Pats are going to be in trouble. Belichick and Kraft know a lot more than they are letting on to the fans and media, and realize that lighting doesn't strike the same place twice. Brady will be fine. The question remains, how well will he do?
Regardless of how comfortable the Pats feel about his knee, Brady is going to be rusty. He didn't play at all last year and will probably not play very much in the preseason. Like Peyton Manning in 2008, expect Brady to start slow. The Pats will try to establish the run earlier in games so that Brady has some time to adjust. By midseason, Belichick is going to put this offense in 5th gear and owners will see numbers closer to what they are used to from Brady; just don't expect a repeat performance of 2007.
Right now, I'm ranking Brady as the second QB right behind Drew Brees. I don't see another QB, even Peyton Manning, having a ceiling as high as either one of these guys. Brees is my choice simply because he wasn't injured last year and has a pretty impressive offense of his own. If you like taking a QB early, confidently take Brady at the end of the 2nd or beginning of the 3rd round.

AFC East

2009-06-16T14:04:00.011-04:00

The AFC East had its fair share of drama last season. The king of fantasy football, Tom Brady, suffered a season ending injury after just 11 passes, which allowed the Dolphins to win the division. Miami not only won the east, but set a record for the biggest one year turn around in NFL history - 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008. The story lines didn't stop after the Super Bowl. The league's biggest pain in the ass, Brett Favre, retired AGAIN, but then quickly asked for his release so that he could try and sign with the Vikings. That saga continues. Terrell Owens was also in the news, not for a second installment of his outdoor workout video, but for signing with yet another team. Regardless of the excuses Jerry Jones wants to use, the Cowboys became tired of the T.O. show and sent him packing for Buffalo. The Bills now have the pleasure of putting up with Owens and all his emotional baggage.

Miami Dolphins
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 10th. Rush - 11th.
Schedule -- Top ten defenses -- 5 (+2). Bottom ten defenses -- 3 (-3).
Weapons -- Chad Pennington -- 2008 fantasy finish - 14th; 2009 QB ADP - 23rd. Ronnie Brown -- 2008 fantasy finish - 16th; 2009 RB ADP - 16th. Ted Ginn Jr. -- 2008 fantasy finish - 38th; 2009 WR ADP - 40th. Anthony Fasano -- 2008 fantasy finish - 11th; 2009 TE ADP 21st.
Outlook -- Without looking closely the numbers, you might think the Dolphins were loaded with fantasy stars last year. Since you're a smart owner and don't take a situation at face value, you've probably already figured out that that's not the case.
Outside of Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins have little fantasy talent. They spread the ball around to everybody but the beer vendors. Their top three WRs- Ginn, Camarillo and Breese- had 56,55 and 54 receptions, with Brown and Ricky Williams chipping in with 33 and 29. Tight End Anthony Fasano also contributed with 34 catches. Nobody has a chance to excel when the ball is given to that many people.
Chad Pennington will be the Dolphins QB again, but do yourself a favor...look elsewhere for a QB on your fantasy roster. The Dolphins schedule will be much harder, the Wildcat offense is now old news and Pennington is an injury waiting to happen.
Ronnie Brown is the one Dolphins player that has the potential to be a solid fantasy contributor. Unfortunately, he gets hurt a lot; 12 games in the last 3 years. Hey, nobody said being a fantasy owner was easy. Brown stayed healthy last year and played well despite coming off of a knee injury in 2007. He is a good RB2, even with the injury history. As shown last year, Ricky Williams is nothing more than a backup to Brown so don't worry about him stealing valuable carries.

New England Patriots
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 12th. Run - 6th.
Schedule -- Top ten defenses -- 3 (+2). Bottom ten defenses -- 3 (-3)
Weapons -- Tom Brady -- 2008 finish - hurt after 11 passes; 2009 QB ADP -- 2nd. Randy Moss -- 2008 fantasy finish -- 4th; 2009 WR ADP - 4th. Wes Welker -- 2008 fantasy finish - 21st; 2009 WR ADP - 13th.
Outlook -- Take 2. Tom Brady and the Pats will try for fantasy immortality again this year. The chance of repeating 2007's numbers was ended a few minutes into the 2008 season when Brady went down with a season-ending knee injury. Career backup Matt Cassel filled in admirably and almost guided the Patriots to the playoffs. He's now in Kansas City, so the Patriots are hoping Brady's knee will be able to hold up. Fantasy owners need to pay attention to how well Brady does in the preseason, if Bill Belichick even lets him play. If I'm the owner of the Pats, there is no way in hell I would let Cassel walk if I wasn't 100% confident in Brady this year. He may get off to a slow start and could possibly finish behind Brees as the top fantasy QB, but Brady will be among the top 3 fantasy QBs this year. Assuming there are no setbacks, draft him with confidence.
Randy Moss and Wes Welker will see their stats increase, with Moss finishing in the top 5 of WRs once again; just don't expect a repeat of 2007. I felt that way last preseason and even more so now.
The Pats are a pure RBBC team so don't expect any of their running backs to be a consistent fantasy option. Fred Taylor was added in the off season to compete with Sammy Morris, Lawrence Maroney and Kevin Faulk. I expect New England to pass more often this year, but they will have to maintain some balance to keep defenders off of Brady at his knee.

New York Jets
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 16th. Run - 9th.
Schedule -- Top ten defenses -- 4 (+1). Bottom ten defenses -- 3 (-3).
Weapons -- Mark Sanchez -- Rookie; 2009 QB ADP - 28th. Thomas Jones -- 2008 fantasy finish - 4th; 2009 RB ADP - 22nd. Jerricho Cotchery -- 2008 fantasy finish -- 26th; 2009 WR ADP - 29th. Dustin Keller -- 2008 fantasy finish -- 19th; 2009 TE ADP - 10th.
Outlook-- Brett Favre's time in NYC has come to an end. The Jets will now turn to rookie Mark Sanchez as their savior. Training camp reports suggest that Sanchez has a good chance of beating out Kellen Clemens as the Week 1 starter, but regardless of when he comes in, Sanchez will see action this season. Now the Jets, mainly Jerricho Cotchery and Thomas Jones, will suffer the consequences. Sanchez had just over one year of college experience and now will be given the reigns to an NFL franchise. New York's offense has to take an even bigger step back this year than last.
In addition, WR Laveranues Coles signed with the Bengals, leaving them with a huge hole at the position. Defenses will key in on Cotchery in the passing game and more importantly, stack the line of scrimmage to stop the Jets surprisingly effective run game. It gets better. Running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are complaining about more money and the team has to adjust to new head coach Rex Ryan. There are just too many potential problems brewing in NY for this team to be a fantasy success.
This year, Rex Ryan could run the ball on just about every play-that's their only chance of winning. The stable of RBs, Jones, Washington and rookie Shonn Green, is talented and the Jets offensive line is one of the better units in the league. This will take a lot of pressure off of Sanchez and allow him to adjust to the NFL game. One thing that will change is how the Jets run. Look for Ryan to establish the dreaded RBBC, similar to what was run in Baltimore. The elder Jones will be the lead, but his stats are going to take a hit this year.

Buffalo Bills
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 22nd. Run - 14th.
Schedule -- Top ten defenses -- 4 (+2). Bottom ten defenses -- 4 (-3).
Weapons -- Trent Edwards -- 2008 fantasy finish - 24th; 2009 QB ADP - 18th. Terrell Owens -- 2008 fantasy finish - 10th; 2009 WR ADP - 14th. Marshawn Lynch -- 2008 fantasy finish - 13th; 2009 RB ADP - 18th (suspended 3 games). Lee Evans -- 2008 fantasy finish - 23rd; 2009 WR ADP - 24th.
Outlook -- ALL ABOARD! The next stop on the T.O Express is Buffalo, NY. Terrell Owens has landed and Trent Edwards couldn't be happier...for now. Love him or hate him, Owens is one of the most talented receivers in the game and a touch down machine-38TDs in the last three years. He will no doubt bring a level of respectability to the Bill's offense and I'm sure the Bill's ordinarily conservative play calling will open up. If not, T.O. will have to come out of his shell and say something.
Keep an eye on Edwards this preseason and definitely consider taking him as a backup. His ADP is low, but the upside is there. Ownes and Lee Evans are a strong group of WRs and once Marshawn Lynch comes back from his suspension (for now 3 games), Buffalo will have a talented enough offense to make a lot of fantasy noise.
Their one major problem is the offensive line. How do I say this delicately? THEY STINK. Edwards needs to have time to throw, but it remains to be seen if the big men up front are going to give it to him. Watch the progress of the Bills during the preseason. There just may be fantasy value there.

NFC situations to pay attention to this offseason

2009-06-16T07:58:00.002-04:00

Owners, you need to keep an eye on these situations throughout the preseason.

Bears offense with Cutler as the QB

Cowboys offense without T.O.

Possibility of Favre going to the Vikings

Matt Forte (hamstring) and Brian Westbrook (ankle and knee) injuries

Boldin's contract dispute

NFC Fantasy Landmines and Value Picks

2009-06-13T09:11:00.011-04:00

Fantasy football has a way of smacking you with a dose of reality. Last year, I would have bet everything I had that at least one of my teams made it to the finals. My first two picks in each were fantasy studs with little risk involved. League 1 -- Tomlinson and Larry Johnson. League 2 -- Steven Jackson and Tom Brady. I'll wait for the "that sucks for you" comments to stop. It was a tough year, but I was able to turn things around. Both teams lost in the finals. Household fantasy names like Brady and Tomlinson will eventually have a bad year. You just have to make sure you don't draft too many of them. The other side of the argument also holds true. How many owners had Chris Johnson, Pierre Thomas and Roddy White high on their draft boards? I'm guessing not many. This is what makes fantasy football so much fun. You just never know.
Here's a list of NFC players that represent value at the current ADP and a list of players that should be drafted with caution.

NFC Fantasy Landmines (in order of importance)

1) Steven Jackson -- RB ADP 7. I can't bring myself to take Jackson at this position. There is no talent on the Rams and he is a major injury risk. If you can get him in the second, take a chance. Otherwise, draft somebody else and let another owner take the hit.

2) DeAngelo Willams -- RB ADP 6 -- Maybe it's just me, but I'm not sold on Williams. I really think the Panthers schedule had a lot to do with their success. He'll probably have a good year, but not enough to warrant that high a pick. I'll probably rank him about 9th-11th on my RB list.

3) Brian Westbrook -- RB ADP 9 -- Westbrook is really hard to judge this year. Injuries last season and this off season have made it nearly impossible to get a read on where to rank him. For now, I have to take a wait and see approach. If he is healthy, take your chances with Westbrook at this position. If you have doubts, go after a much more stable back. Your first pick can't be wasted sitting on the bench.

NFC Fantasy Value Picks (in order of importance)

1) Matt Ryan -- QB ADP 9 -- He will be a great NFL QB. This season, the Saints harder schedule shouldn't hold Ryan back that much. Don't expect a top 3 finish, but 5-7 is not out of the question. At worst, he falls to just outside the top 10, but I really don't think that will happen.

2) Matt Hasselbeck -- QB ADP 16 -- The football gods had their fun with the Seahawks last year. Hopefully, the bad karma will wear off. The added talent and easier schedule should allow Hasselbeck to finish as a bottom tier QB1 or great QB2. There is a lot of value at this position.

3) Jay Cutler -- QB ADP 10 -- Keep an eye on the Bears this off season. The talent isn't as good as in Denver, but Cutler is a very good QB. I don't see him finish much higher than this, but would really be surprised if he went lower. He should be a very solid bottom tier QB1.

NFC SOUTH

2009-06-09T05:46:00.019-04:00

This division was loaded with superstars last year. Teams took advantage of a very weak schedule and carried fantasy owners to league championships. Do not expect the same for 2009. The NFC South schedule is dramatically harder this season. Every team will play 3-4 more top ten defenses compared to last year. Points will be at a premium. I'm not saying avoid Drew Brees or Michael Turner like the plague; when you're that talented, a tougher schedule is not going to hold you back. My advice to fantasy owners -- Be careful when taking players from this division. I'm expecting a lot of them to come back down to earth this season.

Atlanta Falcons
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 14th. Run - 2nd.
Schedule -- Top 10 defenses - 7 (+3). Bottom 10 defenses - 2 (-6).
Weapons -- Matt Ryan -- 2008 fantasy finish - 15th; 2009 QB ADP - 9th. Michael Turner -- 2008 finish - 2nd; 2009 RB ADP - 2nd. Roddy White -- 2008 finish - 5th; 2009 WR ADP - 8th. Tony Gonzalez -- 2008 fantasy finish - 1st; 2009 TE ADP - 3rd.
Outlook -- Atlanta was the feel good story last season after their disastrous 2007. This team has a ton of talent and will be even better in 2009. For the second straight year, the Falcons made a big splash in the off-season by signing future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez. This guy is a beast and will give Matt Ryan another weapon on offense.
Ryan enters his second year as Atlanta's starter. There is just something special about this guy. Remember when Peyton Manning came in the league? People just knew he was going to be great. That's how I feel about Ryan. He probably won't be quite as good as Manning, but this guy will be a force in the NFL for years to come. PAY ATTENTION FANTASY OWNERS- MATT RYAN SHOULD BE ON YOUR TEAM THIS YEAR!
Then there's Michael Turner. LaDainian Tomlinson's backup finally got his shot and didn't disappoint finishing second among RBs. Turner will have another great year, but I expect his numbers to take a hit. There is just too much working against him this season. The schedule, last year's work load (leading the league with 376 attempts), Ryan's growth and Gonzalez being added to the Falcons' arsenal of weapons are all factors that could affect his performance. Turner is a definite Top 5 talent, but his ADP of 2 is a little too risky for my blood.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 11th. Run - 15th
Schedule -- Top 10 defenses - 5 (+3). Bottom 10 defenses - 5 (-5).
Weapons -- Derrick Ward -- 2008 finish - 24th; 2009 RB ADP - 27th. Earnest Graham -- 2008 finish - 38th (missed 6); 2009 RB ADP -- 41st. Antonio Bryant -- 2008 finish -- 7th; 2009 WR ADP 19th. Kellen Winslow -- 2008 finish -- 20th (missed 5); 2009 TE ADP -- 5th.
Outlook -- This ain't last year's Bucs. Chucky Gruden, Joey Galloway(Pats), Jeff Garcia(Raiders) and Warrick Dunn are all gone. Raheem Morris (DB coach) takes over as the new head coach and Byron Leftwich and Luke McCown are left to fight over the deserted starting QB spot. How much is Antonio Bryant loving life right now? All these changes, and the addition of Derrick Ward (Giants), mean one thing - the Bucs are going to run the ball down people's throats this year. Bryant's numbers are going to take a severe hit. DON'T OVERVALUE HIM THIS YEAR. Let's not forget about the schedule change this season. 5 of the first 7 games for the Bucs are against top 10 defenses. Somebody doesn't like the Bucs in the NFL corporate offices. There is a bright spot, however; Ward and a healthy Earnest Graham(ankle) make a pretty good 1-2 RB punch. Ward should lead the way, but both will have opportunities for fantasy points.

Carolina Panthers
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 19th. Run -- 3rd.
Schedule -- Top 10 defenses - 8 (+4). Bottom 10 defenses - 4 (-5).
Weapons -- Jake Delhomme -- 2008 finish - 19th; 2009 QB ADP - 21st. Steve Smith -- 2008 finish - 6th (suspended 2 games); 2009 WR ADP - 7th. DeAngelo Williams -- 2008 finish -- 1st; 2009 RB ADP - 6th. Jonathan Stewart -- 2008 finish - 25th; 2009 RB ADP - 23rd.
Outlook -- For years, the Panthers have been talking about how they want to establish the run. They've had success, but nothing like 2008. DeAngelo Williams was one of the biggest surprises last year. He struggled to beat out DeShaun Foster for carries in his first two years, but, with 1600 total yards and 20 TDs last season, Williams became one of the best running backs in the NFL. Not too bad for a back that was probably drafted as a RB3 or maybe picked up during the season. I have one major question/concern. Was Williams' and Jonathan Stewart's success a product of an extremely easy schedule or are they just that good? I'm leaning more towards them taking advantage of an easy schedule. I want to look at how well they do in the preseason, but I think Williams will disappoint this year. Taking him with the first few picks is just flirting with danger. The Carolina passing game should see some improvement. Delhomme is now 1 year removed from Tommy John surgery and should see a boost in stats. Consider him a solid QB 2.

New Orleans Saints
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 1st. Run - 28th.
Schedule -- Top 10 defenses -- 7 (+3). Bottom 10 defenses -- 4 (-3).
Weapons -- Drew Brees -- 2008 finish - 1st; 2009 QB ADP - 1st. Pierre Thomas -- 2008 finish -- 18th (started 6 games); 2009 RB ADP 19th. Reggie Bush -- 2008 finish - 20th (missed 4); 2009 RB ADP - 20th. Lance Moore -- 2008 finish - 15th; 2009 WR ADP - 30th. Jeremy Shockey -- 2008 finish -- 26th (missed 3); 2009 TE ADP - 13th. Marques Colston -- 2008 finish - 42nd (missed 5); 2009 WR ADP - 10th.
Outlook -- Wouldn't you just love to be a defensive coordinator in this division? Imagine trying to stop the Saints and Falcons twice a year. It can't be done. The Saints were the number 1 passing offense last year, with Drew Brees totaling 4977 yds and 34 TDs (both league leaders). The amazing part of his performance was that Bush, Shockey and Colston missed a combined 12 games. Lance Moore and Pierre Thomas made major contributions in their absences. This season, expect the Saints to once again put up impressive numbers. Brees is a shoe in for a top 3 QB spot and will challenge Tom Brady for number 1 overall. The Saints showed they can overcome injuries. The question is...can they overcome the harder schedule? Right now, I would have to take Brees as the 1st quarterback. Brady needs to prove that his knee is healthy before you can even consider taking him over Brees.
Injuries are holding this offense back from being considered one of the all-time greats. Reggie Bush, the poor man's Brian Westbrook, and Marques Colston each had microfracture surgery in the offseason. Both have been practicing and are expected to be ready for training camp. They have a history of knee problems, so keep an eye on their progress and draft accordingly.

Is Matt Hasselbeck still a fantasy starter?

2009-06-08T21:38:00.004-04:00

He may not have been Peyton Manning, but Matt Hasselbeck was a good fantasy QB. With everything that happened last year and the changes this off-season, does anybody think Hasselbeck will be a top 10 QB? If so, do you have the guts to wait until later in the draft to take him as your QB 1?
Drafting is all about taking the RIGHT chances - this could be one of them. Imagine getting a top ten QB talent after the 9th round...sounds like a great idea. Here's the scenario. 4 rounds are done and you're up in the 5th. Still no QB. Do you go for McNabb, Ryan or Cutler? Or do you take the Hasselbeck Challenge and draft another RB or WR to wait on the Seattle QB? Your chance at a championship could be made with this pick. WHAT DO YOU DO?

BREAKING NFL NEWS

2009-06-04T13:22:00.006-04:00

Eagles RB Westbrook scheduled to have ankle surgery Friday
NFL.com Wire Reports

Philadelphia Eagles running back Brian Westbrook will have surgery on his right ankle Friday, but the team didn't divulge how much time he will miss.
Dr. Mark Meyerson will perform the operation on Westbrook in Baltimore. The Eagles called the procedure "a debridement" of the ankle.
Westbrook's agent, Todd France, has been quoted by ESPN.com as saying his client will have a procedure on the ankle to "clean it up" and that the running back has no timetable for his return. However, ESPN.com quotes a "source" who says Westbrook could be sidelined "well into training camp."
France said Westbrook has "bone spurs" in his ankle that need to be cleaned out, and that if it were the regular season, the running back wouldn't have surgery.

GORE VS JACKSON. WHO COMES OUT ON TOP?

2009-06-04T10:05:00.005-04:00

Jackson's current ADP is 5th. Gore's is 9th. Which one is going to finish higher in the standing? Let me start by saying that I'm a huge Stephen Jackson fan and was debating taking him 2nd overall last year. Thankfully, I didn't. This year, I would probably have to take Gore over Jackson.
Neither deserves a top 5 selection, but Jackson has way too many questions and will probably get hurt AGAIN. Both teams lack offensive firepower. Outside of Jackson, the Rams have nobody to help out. Don't fall for the hype that the Rams are going to use Jackson a lot. There's no doubt they will try, but every year teams vow to run the ball only to realize that by Week 2 passing is their only possible way to win games. Every defense is going to gear up to stop Jackson. That wear and tear will take it's toll. If he doesn't get hurt, Jackson will be nicked up and owners will probably see a reduction in numbers during the most important part of the season.
The 49ers may not be great, but you can see some light at the end of the tunnel. They have a good coach and made some improvements in the off-season. Gore's main advantage is that 49ers have some talent, but not great talent. They will still have to rely on Gore as their main offensive weapon. Gore should be a solid end of the 1st Rd RB.

Check out some other fantasy blogs

2009-06-04T09:40:00.002-04:00

Since I'm new to blogging, I had no idea just how many sites were out there. WOW! Seems like you could spend the entire off-season reading blogs and probably not finish the list before draft day. I've added some to my list and encourage you to visit their sites and become active participants. A few really stood out.

1) The Fantasy Blogger -- I really like the design of the site and there is a ton of info. Kris does a great job posting new material and is a member of this blog. From basic strategy, to news, to rankings, Kris has a lot to offer readers.

2) Fantasy Football Fools -- I just stumbled across this site today and was very impressed. It's refreshing seeing articles posted every few days. There is a lot of info on this site with several great links.

NFC WEST

2009-05-29T11:20:00.016-04:00

There was a lot of disappointment in this division last year. The 49ers had some preseason hype, but finished below 500. The Rams were anything but The Greatest Show on Turf. The Cardinals surprised everybody and almost won the Super Bowl, but don't forget they didn't have a run game or defense for most of the season. And last but not least, there was the Seattle Seahawks. I'm not a fan of the team, but I think everybody had to feel a little compassion for them last year. It seemed like the entire team was on IR at one point. Now, let's get dirty to see where the fantasy gold lies.

Seattle Seahawks
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 29th. Run - 19th
Schedule -- Top 10 defenses -- 4 (-2). Bottom 10 defenses -- 3 (+1)
Weapons -- Matt Hasselbeck -- 2008 QB fantasy finish - 36th (missed 7 games). 2009 QB ADP - 16th. Julius Jones -- 2008 finish - 45th (missed 1 game). 2009 RB ADP - 16th. John Carlson -- 2008 finish - 7th. 2009 TE ADP - 9th. TJ Houshmandzadeh (CHAMPIONSHIP) - 2008 finish - 31st. 2009 WR ADP - 15th.
Outlook - After being decimated by injuries at the wide receiver and QB positions, Seattle went out and signed free agent TJ Houshmandzadeh. For the first time in years, Hasselbeck has a legit number 1 WR to throw to. Assuming this combo can stay healthy, the Seattle passing numbers will return to respectability. Seattle also gets WR Nate Burleson back from an early season knee injury. There are fantasy players on this team. You just have to proceed with caution. Hasselbeck's back problems could resurface and trusting a WR coming off major knee surgery is always dangerous. From a fantasy perspective, I like Houshmandzadeh as a WR 2 and Hasselbeck as a strong backup QB with potential to put up QB 1 numbers. Hasselbeck is a major value pick this year. As long as he is healthy, take a chance on him. The problem with Seattle's offense is their lack of a running game. Julius Jones is not a starting RB is this league. He was average in Dallas when he rotated with Marion Barber. How can the Seahawks trust him to start? STAY AWAY FROM HIM. The rumors of Thomas Jones or Edgerrin James coming to town haven't come true. Unless they improve their run game, Seattle is going to be a one trick pony.

San Francisco 49ers
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 13th. Run - 27th.
Schedule -- Top 10 defenses - 3 (-2). Bottom 10 defenses - 6 (same).
Weapons -- Shaun Hill -- 2008 QB fantasy finish -- 28th (missed 7 games). 2009 QB ADP - 26th. Frank Gore -- 2008 finish -- 15th (missed 2). 2009 RB ADP - 9th. Vernon Davis -- 2008 finish 29th. 2009 TE ADP - 20th. Issac Bruce -- 2008 finish - 25th. 20009 WR ADP - 62nd. Michael Crabtree -- Rookie. 2009 WR ADP - 34th.
Outlook -- Mike Martz is gone and Frank Gore has to be loving life. Jimmy Raye (Jets RB coach) will take over as offensive coordinator and promises to be implement a more run friendly system. Gore has a ton of talent, both as a runner and receiver, so expect his numbers to improve. He will get nicked up, but has only missed 3 games in 3 years. I expect him to be a solid late first round RB. The 49ers aren't good enough for Gore to be a top 5 talent, but he will give your team a solid scoring option each and every week. The passing offense surprisingly finished a respectable 13th. Why don't I feel more confident with this team? Mike Martz is gone. I'm not sold on Shaun Hill. Vernon Davis is a career underachiever. Issac Bruce can almost collect Social Security and Michale Crabtree is a rookie with a foot injury. If Crabtree is healthy and starting at the beginning of the season and you have a pretty solid team, take a shot at him late in the draft. Otherwise, take a wait and see approach with these guys. I just don't see wasting a roster spot when there are so many questions surrounding the 49ers passing attack.

St Louis Rams
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass -- 26th. Run -- 25th
Schedule -- Top 10 defenses -- 3 (-2). Bottom 10 defenses -- 4 (+1)
Weapons -- Marc Bulger -- 2008 QB fantasy finish -- 27th (missed 2 games). 2009 QB ADP - 27th. Steven Jackson -- 2008 finish -- 19th (missed 4 games). 2009 RB ADP - 5th. Donnie Avery -- 2008 finish - 40th. 2009 WR ADP - 32nd.

Outlook -- Do you remember when the Rams had fantasy studs at every position? Warner, Holt, Bruce, Faulk. All of those guys are gone and after last year, you have to wonder if the team will ever produce respectable numbers again. Stephen Jackson is the ONLY star on the Rams. Put him on the Colts or Broncos and he would be the best RB in the league every year. He's a great runner and receiver and has nose for the end zone. The problem is not with Jackson, but the Rams offense. There are no receivers and Bulger is an injury waiting to happen. Jackson is spending way too much time in the trainer's room because the Rams have nobody else to rely upon. As much as I like Jackson, I wouldn't draft him in the top 5 and may even consider waiting until Round 2 before even thinking about him. His current ADP is way too high for a guy with that many question marks. Marc Bulger is good when everything else is in place. That's not the case this year. He will put up numbers here and there, but I'm not drafting him. There are too many other possibilities at QB this year with far less risk. Do yourself a favor. Stay away from the Rams in 2009. They are just BAD.

Arizona Cardinals

NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass -- 2nd. Run -- 32nd.

Schedule -- Top 10 defenses -- 3 (-3). Bottom 10 defenses -- 5 (+1).

Weapons -- Kurt Warner -- 2008 QB fantasy finish -- 5th. 2009 QB ADP - 5th. Larry Fitzgerald -- 2008 finish -- 2. 2009 WR ADP - 1. Anquan Boldin -- 2008 finish -- 8th (missed 3 games). 2009 WR ADP -- 9th. Chris Wells -- Rookie. 2009 RB ADP -- 29th.

Outlook -- Almost 4 months later and I still can't believe the Cardinals were within seconds of winning the Super Bowl. Talk about a turn around. The laughing stock of the league for years and suddenly, the Cardinals do the impossile. Not only that, their pathetic run game and defense started to play at a pretty high level once the playoffs stared. Well, this is 2009 and regardless of what happened last year, this team will go only as far as Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald can take them. In 2008, both were a fantasy owner's dream come true. I actually picked Warner up a few weeks into the season. Talk about lucky. I expect more of the same numbers this year. Warner is old, but still very productive. His ADP will obviously be much higher this year. Fitzgerald has become the best receiver in the league. It didn't look like anybody could stop him last year. That want change in 2009. My one concern is Boldin. He wants a new contract. If he leaves, the Cardinals will take a hit on offense. But since no team wanted to pay the Cardinals asking price and Boldin's high contract, he should be back with the team. Also, Boldin and Fitzgerald have injury histories. You're going to pay a price for each of them this year. Keep that in mind when drafting.

NFC North Questions

2009-05-25T14:11:00.008-04:00

How will Jay Cutler do this year?
In a 10 person league, he is a borderline stater. Do you wait to draft Cutler and streghten your other positions early?
For me, taking a starting QB late in the draft if the key to victory. This year makes that decision even easier. If Cutler is a borderline starer, you are in good shape. Even with the lack of receiving talent, Cutler makes a good pick late in your draft. Getting that type of production in the 5th or 6th Rd is what an owner dreams of.

Will Brett make his triumpant return to the NFL and how will the Vikings do with a true starting QB?

Does anybody think Matt Forte will outperform Adrian Peterson this year?
This is something I will be looking at closely this year. Peterson is everybody's favorite pick, but his injury history bothers me. I don't see Jones-Drew as the number 1 and Turner has a much harder schedule. Atlanta has to open up the playbook to Matt Ryan, esp since Tony Gonzalez was sigened. That will limit Turner's touches. Forte is an interesting pick, but one that I will seriously consider as my number 1, esp in pts per reception leagues.

In what week does Matthew Staffford start?

More NFL News

2009-05-19T11:49:00.002-04:00

From ProFootballTalk.com

NFL, Comcast Deal Will Include “On Demand” Content

Posted by Mike Florio on May 19, 2009, 9:50 a.m.

The NFL has officially announced, via that dinosaur known as a “press release,” its agreement with Comcast.

The deal includes a feature not previously disclosed. Per the release, Comcast customers will now have access to a “robust suite of NFL content On Demand, including game highlights, game replays, the ‘best’ of NFL Films, players and coaches interviews, local team highlights, and other NFL programming whenever they want a piece of the action.”

But NFL Network still won’t appear on Comcast’s basic service package. Instead, NFLN will move from a current digital tier to the “Digital Classic” package, which will result in the content being available to two-thirds of all Comcast customers — a major upgrade over the current availability of NFLN.

The launch is scheduled to happen by August 1.

Also, updating a previous story :

Ed Werder (ESPN) Updates Favre Situation

Source: Brett Favre does not consider surgery on torn biceps tendon to be imminent

Contrary to reports, Brett Favre does not have an appointment with Dr. James Andrews on Tuesday and doesn't consider surgery on his partially torn biceps tendon to be imminent, according to a source. (END)

Is it just me or is everybody sick and tired of Brett Favre? Why doesn't he just retire and be done with it? I'm so sick of hearing his name.

NFL News

2009-05-18T22:32:00.004-04:00

Articles posted on ProfootballTalk.com. The link to their page is on the side of my blog.

Report: Favre Planning Surgery On Torn Biceps Tendon

Posted by Mike Florio on May 18, 2009, 2:56 p.m.

Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, whose rumor-laden “Don’t Print That” columns often prompt skeptical readers to say in reply “don’t read that,” reports that free-agent quarterback Brett Favre will meet Tuesday with renowned orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews regarding the possibility of surgery on Favre’s partially torn biceps tendon.

Favre reportedly missed an appointment last week with Dr. Andrews.

Walters says that Favre is expected to have surgery later this week to “release the tendon,” and the rehab is expected to require six to eight weeks.

Eagles Announce Indefinite Leave Of Absence For Jim Johnson

Posted by Mike Florio on May 18, 2009, 3:19 p.m.

As reported earlier today by ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio, the Philadelphia Eagles officially have placed defensive coordinator Jim Johnson on an indefinite leave of absence so that he can undergo treatments for cancer.

The team also confirmed that secondary coach Sean McDermott will take over the defense in Johnson’s absence.

Gruden: “I’m Thrilled To Be A Part Of It”

Posted by Aaron Wilson on May 18, 2009, 3:34 p.m.

Jon Gruden is already wearing his game face.

The intense, enthusiastic former Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Oakland Raiders coach was definitely pumped up during an ESPN conference call this afternoon where he was announced as the replacement for Tony Kornheiser in the Monday Night Football booth.

T.O. Is A Hit In Buffalo, So Far

Posted by Aaron Wilson on May 18, 2009, 9:04 p.m.

Wide receiver Terrell Owens got the star treatment during his first offseason practice with the Buffalo Bills with several cameras capturing his every move Monday.

After dropping the first pass thrown to him, Owens turned in a strong performance by registering seven other receptions, including a 40-yard, over-the-shoulder touchdown catch behind cornerback Terrence McGee, according to Mark Gaughan of the Buffalo News.

NFC North

2009-05-17T07:19:00.016-04:00

The Black and Blue Division had its share of headlines this off-season. The Bears finally signed a QB that can play. The winless Lions revamp their pathetic team. Then there's the story that just won't die. Brett Favre may be making another comeback. The press covering these teams definitely earned their money this year and now fantasy owners are left to figure out what all the changes mean to them. The strength of schedule for the division is similar to last year.

Green Bay Packers
NFL Offensive Rankings -- Pass - 8th. Run - 17th
Weapons -- Aaron Rodgers -- 2008 QB fantasy finish - 3rd. 2009 QB Average Draft Position - 4th. Ryan Grant -- 2008 finish 23rd. 2009 RB ADP - 15th. Greg Jennings -- 2008 finish 3rd. 2009 WR ADP - 8th.
Schedule -- 6 top ten defenses (+1 over last year). 5 bottom ten (same).
Outlook -- The Packers didn't make any major moves in the off-season. Rodgers enters his second season as the Packers starting QB. The added year of experience and less talk of Favre starting in Green Bay can only help his game. Coupled with Greg Jennings, the GB passing attack should put up big numbers again this year. Unfortunately, their draft position will be much higher in 2009. I'm interested in seeing what Ryan Grant does this year. He only started 9 games in 2007, but his average per game would have put him in the top 5 of RBs. 2008 was a different story. Inconsistency hurt him, esp early. Grant's average points per game for the 1st half of the season was 7.4, but he managed to increase that to 11.1 pts/game. He is better than he played last year. I'm expecting a bump in Grant's numbers and some value with his current ADP.

Minnesota Vikings
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass -25th. Run - 5th.
Weapons -- Sage Rosenfels -- 2008 QB fantasy finish -- 35th (6 games as starter). 2009 QB Average Draft Position -- 28th. Adrian Peterson --2008 finish -- 3rd. 2009 RB ADP - 1st. Bernard Berrian -- 2008 finish -- 12th. 2009 WR ADP - 28th. Visanthe Shiancoe -- 2008 finish -- 5th. 2009 TE ADP - 13th.
Schedule -- 3 top ten defenses (same). 5 bottom ten (+1)
Outlook -- The success of this offense begins and ends with Peterson. He's one of a few players in the league that can single handedly win you fantasy games. Almost every draft board has him as the number 1 overall pick. Not a bad choice, but I do have some concerns. Even though he was healthy last year, Peterson missed games in college and his first year as a pro. He's worth the risk, but keep that in mind when passing on guys like Michael Turner and Matt Forte. Minnesota's passing attack is a huge questions mark this year. The Vikings added Sage Rosenfels from Houston, but he's never established himself as a reliable option. He'll battle Tavaris Jackson to be the starting QB this season. I don't trust either of these guys. Also, don't let Bernard Berrian's 2008 numbers fool you. He had a nice year, but I don't expect a repeat performance. The QB position is going to hold back these receivers. Of coarse, there's always the Drama Queen Brett Favre. If his bicep tendon can be fixed, the Vikings will sign Favre to help them make a Super Bowl run. If healthy, Brett is a better option than any QB on the roster and will be able to take some of the pressure off Peterson. I'm not a Favre fan, but his signing can only help this team. Just don't expect Pro Bowl numbers.

Detroit Lions
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass -24th. Run -- 30th.
Weapons -- Matthew Stafford - Rookie year. 2009 QB Average Draft Positioin - 29th. Kevin Smith -- 2008 finish - 21st. 2009 RB ADP - 16th. Calvin Johnson -- 2008 finish - 1st. 2009 WR ADP - 3rd. Brandon Pettigrew -- Rookie year. 2009 TE ADP - 21st.
Schedule -- 4 bottom ten defenses (+2). 5 top ten (same)
Outlook -- There's nowhere to go but up for the Lions. After becoming the first team in NFL history to go 0-16, the Lions loaded up on weapons in this year's draft. Daunte Culpepper should start as the QB this year, but it's just a matter of time before Stafford takes over the team for good. The number 1 overall pick is going to have a long year, but he can do what the Detroit QBs did last year. Throw it up to Calvin Johnson and then sit back and watch the show. Speaking of Megatron, Johnson was a monter in 2008. Everybody in the stadium knew who was going to get the ball, but could do nothing about it. Thankfully, I was able to draft Johnson after several WRs were already taken. That's not going to be the case this year. Despite Detroit's offensive troubles, Johnson will be one of the first WRs taken. I don't see him finishing as the number 1 WR again, but Johnson is talented enough to be in the top 5. Detroit also drafted TE Brandon Pettigrew to help take some of the pressure off Johnson. He's talented, but we'll have to see if he can play at the NFL level.

Chicago Bears
NFL Offensive Rank -- Pass - 21st. Run - 24th
Weapons -- Jay Cutler - 2008 QB fantasy finish - 5th. 2009 QB ADP - 10th. Matt Forte - 2008 finish - 5th. 2009 RB ADP - 4th. Greg Olsen - 2008 finish - 10th. 2009 TE ADP - 8th.
Schedule --5 bottom 10 defenses (same). 5 top ten defenses (same).
Outlook - Can you belive it? The Rex Grossman/Kyle Orton experiment if finally over in Chicago. The Bears may have mortgaged their future, but the ownership finally signed a bonified starting QB. This is the hardest team to judge in the division. Cutler is as talented as they come, but there isn't much talent at WR. Most of the passing offense goes through the TEs and the RBs. Looke for Greg Olsen to be a major value pick this year. Cutler will definitely improve the Bears in the passing game, but don't expect a finish similar to 2008. Although preseason reports have been very positive, there is no Brandon Marshall on this team. Matt Forte is the player to watch on the Bears. He had a great rookie year and the addition of Jay Cutler can only help Forte become an elite fantasy RB. Defenses will have to play the Bears honest this year so Forte will find more room to run. Since the Bears didn't upgrade the receiver postion, Forte will see even more passes thrown his way. In points per reception leagues, Frote should be one of the first picks taken.

Brian Westbrook

2009-05-16T16:10:00.006-04:00

We all know what this guy is capable of doing on the football field. He's a walking highlight reel and fantasy stud. But, Westbrook turns 30 in September. Statistically, this is where RBs start to break down. Does anybody think B-West has a top 5 fantasy season left in him? Is he still a first round pick?
I love Westbrook, but expecting a top 5 finish is too risky for me. There are several choices out there this year that have much less risk involved. The top 5 should be "no doubt about it" picks and if you judge wrong, your fantasy team will suffer throughout the year. I wouldn't be surprised if Westbook moves into the top 5, but just can't bring myself to pay that price for him.

NFC East questions

2009-05-12T20:42:00.004-04:00

Here's some football food for thought to get this blog rolling...

How will the Cowboys do this season without T.O.?
Will Burress play this year? If so, for which team? The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets?

NFC East Review

2009-05-09T20:45:00.023-04:00

One word describes the NFC East - DEFENSE. The Eagles, Redskins and Giants finished 3 through 5 in Total Defense while the Cowboys placed a measly 8th. There's no doubt the 6 divisional games will be brutal, but there is hope. This division looks to have an easier schedule this year. Good bye Steelers and Ravens...hello AFC West. Let's look at the fantasy forecast.

Philadelphia Eagles
NFL Offensive Ranking -- Pass - 6th. Run - 22nd.
Weapons -- Donovan McNabb: 2008 QB fantasy finish - 9th. 2009 QB Average Draft Position - 8th. Brian Westbrook: 2008 finish of 6th(missed 2 games). 2009 RB ADP of 8th. DeSean Jackson 2008 finish of 24th - 2009 WR ADP of 22nd.
Schedule -- 7 top ten defenses (-1). 6 bottom ten (+2)
Outlook -- The Eagles are having a great off-season. They've dramatically upgraded the OL and, HOPEFULLY, get a healthy and sane Shawn Andrews for the entire season. Jeremy Maclin and Lesean McCoy were added as offensive weapons through the draft. For me, the Eagles are the offensive team to watch out for in this division. Two things to look at when trying to rank a player or team's performance in the upcoming season are change of talent, and change of schedule. The Eagles improved in both areas. McNabb could be in for another big year. If you have a chance, grab him, but just be sure to take solid backup. Westbrook comes with a little more damage. He'll be good, but is coming off a knee injury and will become a dreaded 30 year old RB at the start of the season. Don't reach for Westbrook this year and if you do get him, make sure you draft another quality RB.

Dallas Cowboys
NFL Offensive Ranking -- Pass - 9th. Run - 21st.
Weapons -- Tony Romo: 2008 QB fantasy finish - 7th(missed 3 games). 2009 QB Average Draft Position - 7th. Marion Barber: 2008 finish of 14th. 2009 RB ADP of 12th(missed 1 game). Jason Witten: 2008 finish of 2nd. 2009 TE ADP of 1st. Roy Williams wasn't even on the charts last year. His WR ADP for this year is 16th.
Schedule -- 7 top ten defenses (-2). 7 bottom ten (+4)
Outlook -- The T.O. saga finally ended for Big D. The cancer is gone, but so are his 1,000+ yards and annual double digit TDs. The main question here is whether or not Roy Williams can fill his shoes. I don't think so, but we're not talking about Freddie Mitchell here. Roy Williams can play, and as long as Romo's security blanket, Jason Witten, is there, the Cowboys will always be a good offensive team. Don't forget about Marion Barber and the return of second year RB sensation Felix Jones. There are still a lot weapons in Dallas. I'd take a chance on any of these players. Just please don't reach for Barber like a lot of people did last year. He is not a top five runner. His ADP this year is just about right.

NY Giants
NFL Offensive Ranking -- Pass - 18th. Run - 1st.
Weapons -- Eli Manning: 2008 QB fantasy finish of 11th. 2009 QB ADP of 15th. Brandon Jacobs finished 11th(missed 2 games). 2009 RB ADP of 14th.
Schedule -- 8 top ten defenses (-1). 6 bottom ten (+3)
Outlook -- Another divisional team with a WR problem. Plaxico Burress lost his job because he is an idiot. Shooting yourself in the leg was probably not the best career move. Now the Giants are forced to try and replace him. Since a Braylon Edwards trade didn't work out, the Giants drafted Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden to help their receiving core. They may have talent, but counting on rookies not named Randy Moss are always risky bets. I'm not a big fan of the Giants passing attack this year. There just aren't enough weapons. In 2008, the Giants were rated as the 6th best offensive team on the strength of the running game. Brandon Jacobs will be leaned on heavily this year. He is a monster but has an extensive injury history. Derrick Ward, the 24th fantasy RB last year and a great compliment for Jacobs, left for Tampa Bay. I'm very concerned about Jacobs getting injured. Unless one of the other RBs can match Ward's production, Jacobs is going to get a lot of carries and could break down again. Without any other weapons on the team, this could be a long year for Eli. If you do draft Jacobs, make sure you have a solid number 1 RB ahead of him. The position is too hard to fix during the season and Jacobs is going to get hurt this year.

Washington Redskins
NFL Offensive Ranking -- Pass - 23rd. Run - 8th
Weapons -- Jason Campbell: 2008 QB fantasy finish of 19th. 2009 QB ADP of 21st. Clinton Portis: 2008 finish of 10. 2009 RB ADP of 13th. Santana Moss: 2008 finish of 14th. 2009 WR ADP of 27th. Chris Cooley: 2008 finish of 9th. 2009 TE ADP of 6th.
Schedule -- 7 top ten defenses (-1). 8 bottom ten (+3)
Outlook -- Like the Giants, this divisional team relies heavily on the running game. Clinton Portis is the biggest star on this team. The Skins had the 8th best rushing attack last year and Portis is the reason why. He stays healthy and is pretty consistent - you can't ask for much more than that. He's a good late first-round or early second-round pick. The passing game is a different story, however. A 23rd ranking is just not going to get it done. Campbell is not a good fantasy QB and that is going to hurt Moss and Cooley. With that said, I'd still confidently take Cooley as my starting TE. He is good and will be used. Just don't reach for him. As far as Moss goes, I've never really been a fan of his; he is too inconsistent and gets hurt a lot. As far as the team stats, I'd expect a lot of the same from the Skins offense this year.

Now the important part. What does everybody else think? Do you see a bust coming from this division? How about a surprise? Let's hear it.

Your fantasy football future starts with a look at the past

2009-05-02T16:07:00.000-04:00

Folks, it's that time again. NFL Draft Day has come and gone. Madden NFL 09 has hit the shelves. T.O. is set to ruin yet another team. The 2009 fantasy football season is finally here.
Now, I'm going to say something a little crazy, but I need you all to bear with me. Put your mock drafts away. Forget about whatever ranking list you're using. For now, it doesn't really matter who the number 1 pick should be. This may go against everything that a fantasy football owner holds true, but hear me out. If you want to win your league, you must begin by looking at last year. I know there are a lot of factors in between, but last year's numbers will give you a solid foundation for this year's success.

We all want to perfectly predict what's going to happen in January, so we put in countless hours doing research. We pick out our favorite magazines and websites and go crazy. I have a few that I swear by, but let's face it, even they aren't perfect. Truth is, everything about fantasy football is based on opinion, whether it's good, or bad. The only constant we can look to is last year's numbers. With all the information floating around, last year's numbers give us something with which to measure this year's forecast. A talented writer can make Rex Grossman sound as good as Peyton Manning. Maybe that's a bit of a stretch, but we've all had a "can't miss" pick on our draft list only to have it blow up in our face by Week 6. By looking back at last year's numbers, we can see how Grossman really finished and filter out a lot of the bad advice some sources give us. And with leagues of all sizes and scoring systems, somebody else's top ten list might not work with how a particular player will actually do in your league. Gotcha thinkin', didn't I? Well, for you baseball fans, here's a curve ball. You have to take it one step further.

Last year's numbers are great, but what about injuries? Or missed games? They're a big part of our success or failure so we can't just look at a player's final numbers and start ranking him. For example, Steve Smith was suspended for two games, but still finished as the 6th WR in one of my leagues. If you credit Smith his average for those two games, he would have been the number one WR. That's right. He would have finished ahead of Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Surprised? I was, too. How about Ronnie Brown? He was the 16th RB in my league, but had one 48-point game. When he is grouped with other RBs with similar points, don't you think Ronnie should fall a little short? Then there's Anquan "I wanna be Larry Fitzgerald" Boldin. He was hurt for three games, but then again, he gets hurt almost every year. You can't credit him all those games back, but maybe you can give him one. This is where dedicated owners take it to the next level. You have to consider all of these factors before you even look at a draft sheet. The numbers don't lie, but they can be manipulated. You just have to be smart enough to decided how to finalize last year's numbers. It could very well be what separates you from the rest of the owners come play-off time.

Look, I'm not saying that by simply looking at last year you can determine how a player will do this year. Free agency, the draft, injuries, a different schedule and countless other factors can make or break a player and your fantasy football team. I just don't want you to discredit the value of accurately ranking how a player did the previous year. You're going to be bombarded with information over the next few months. You'll need some way of separating the good opinions from the bad. Last year gives you a pretty good start. Besides. We all want to win our league and gloat during the off-season. Why not have that extra edge to put you above the rest?